Page 27 - UKRRptJul21

4.5.3 Retail sector dynamics
Ukrainian retail sales increased 14.3% y/y in 5M21 accelerating from 14.0% y/y growth in 4M21, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on June 22.
In May, real retail sales increased 5.2% m/m and 22.7% y/y.
“There’s one major positive so far for Russia’s economic recovery — it’s way faster than from the 2008-2009 crisis. Industrial output is already above its levels from the start of the crisis, though that should be interrogated a bit. Despite the relative deterioration of household finances, industrial output has driven the recent ‘surge’ and inflationary pressures in the Russian economy. Output for May was 2.9% higher than it’s 2019 levels,” says Russian analyst Nick Birman-Trickett.
The highest growth occurred in Chernivtsi (30.7% y/y), Ternopil (30.1% y/y) and Zakarpattia (24.5% y/y) regions. The slowest growth rates were in Kharkiv (2.1% y/y), Kirovohrad (10.3% y/y) and Ukraine-controlled Donetsk (10.6% y/y) regions.
“The retail growth continues to impress. The low comparative base of May 2020 (3.1% y/y decline) was not the major factor behind the remarkable result. The fast growth of wages and constrained alternative consumption (i.e. travelling) prompted the retail boom,” Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note. “We expect consumer demand to stay strong in 2021, allowing retail sales to accelerate to 10% y/y (vs. 8.4% y/y growth in 2020).”
27 UKRAINE Country Report July 2021 www.intellinews.com