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few days before the election board announced there is to be a fresh Istanbul election. Media reports suggested it was the first such lawyer visit in eight years, but it should be observed that delegations from the main pro- Kurdish party, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), held regular meetings with Ocalan in 2015 during the so-called “peace process”. Ocalan’s lawyers released an unnecessary PR bulletin following their visit but the question here is whether Ocalan has sent a message for war or peace to the Qandil Mountains in Iraq, the rugged territory where the PKK is headquartered. “Abdullah Ocalan’s statements came at a time when: 1. the [Kurdish People’s Protection Units] YPG leadership revealed indirect talks with Turkey 2. Turkey started an offensive into YPG controlled villages in Tal Refat areas in Syria 3. a senior PKK leader vowed to spread their war into Turkey, beyond rural areas,” Guney Yildiz of BBC News wrote on Twitter. Erdogan and the PKK have reciprocatively played on war or peace during their endless game. But Erdogan has the determinative power as he holds both state power and the PKK leader.
Game of war or peace? The coming days should make it clear as to whether Erdogan will play a war game with the PKK like that seen after the June 2015 general election or pursue a “peace” strategy to retrieve the Kurdish voters in Istanbul whose shift to Imamoglu was decisive in landing the strongman with his “democracy” headache. Both alternatives bring many questions, including what reaction can be expected from Turkish state, Qandil, Kurdish voters and so forth while Erdogan’s current crutch, MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, “surprisingly” pledged support to revival of lawyer visits to Ocalan.
When it comes to Imamoglu, this is a politician who seems determined to win again despite all the odds but he is for sure aware that Erdogan has some ugly plans. Some small parties that ran candidates in the last contest for mayor have already pledged their support to Imamoglu. However, the impacts of Erdogan’s currently unknown plans and the response of Kurdish voters will have a more decisive power on the outcome.
It is again easy to speculate over the likelihood of street protests for non- expert Turkey experts, but Eissenstat has matter-of-factly explained on Twitter why it doesn’t look possible this time around: “Before we get too excited about ‘a new #Gezi,’ let's recall: 1. Police strategies for controlling crowds have much advanced since 2013. 2. Turkish government much more willing to engage in draconian repression since 2013. 3. Gezi itself was, in most respects, a political failure” Also, don’t overlook how Erdogan trolls are working hard to encourage some protesters to take to the streets. The idea here might be to produce a scenario where security forces can employ violence, showing a dominance that will keep the country in line. If some protests break out, they will definitely not be like the popular demonstrations in 2013, since all regular folk are by now afraid.
On the global front, Erdogan’s troubles with the US appears to be easing via talks on Syrian Kurds but the EU is not mincing its words in decrying the annulling of the Istanbul election vote—German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on May 7 that the election board’s move was “not transparent and not comprehensible”—and Brussels has joined the US in expressing grave and deep concern over Turkey’s plans to drill for oil and gas in the exclusive economic zone claimed by Cyprus. Israeli missiles hit the Gaza office of Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency over the weekend, while in Syria, Assad and Russia are hitting Idlib, where Turkish forces are present.
And, the economic crisis is growing apace at home. Turkey’s BB/Negative rating could be downgraded if “existing weaknesses are aggravated, especially given the volatility in the Turkish economy and currency,” Edward Parker of Fitch Ratings told Reuters on May 7. Some investors are worried that Turkey’s central bank will resort to “back door” measures to stabilise the lira, as it did before the initial Istanbul election, when it ramped up its use of swaps to fend off a volatile selloff, Reuters also reported. The central bank on May 6 launched its new gold swap market to help it address its sagging reserves. Transactions started on
11 TURKEY Country Report June 2019 www.intellinews.com