Page 55 - TURKRptJun19

7.0 FX
Turkey FX
Currency (units per USD) (eop)
Jul 2018
4.91
Aug 2018
6.54
Sep 2018
6.06
Oct 2018
5.58
Nov 2018
5.21
Dec 2018
5.29
Jan 2019
5.16
Feb 2019
5.34
Mar 2019
5.56
Apr 2019
5.97 5.83
May
7.1 Is the Turkish lira any less vulnerable than last year?
Turkey Insight: Not weak at the knees yet? Credit default swaps just hit 520. Turkey’s 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) hit 520 bp on May 24, reaching the highest level on record since September. The 500-threshold was passed on May 23 and it’s clear international markets are currently pricing in a Turkish default. The all-time high 5-year CDS level posted for Turkey of 566 was registered last September 4, 10 days before the central bank hiked its main policy rate by 625bp in a belated response to the havoc wrought by the lira crisis. With the cost of insuring exposure to its sovereign debt soaring, Turkey currently ranks at 4th place in the global league for a potential default. Venezuela, which has defaulted, is the leader by far with a 5-year CDS of more than 70,000. It is followed by Argentina at over 1,000 and Ukraine, which is in
55 TURKEY Country Report June 2019 www.intellinews.com