Page 19 - UKRRptApr21

* Current National Bank of Ukraine rate at 6.50% * End 2Q21 forecast at 7.00%
The pandemic will affect further economic growth and in 2022 it could reach 2.8%, advisor to the head of the President's Office Tymofiy Mylovanov said, as cited by Interfax Ukraine on March 18.
"Due to the fall in investment last year, we will have a negative effect on GDP and GDP growth in 2022 will be 2.8%, and then it will resume being 4%," Mylovanov said during a discussion at the Ukraine 30 forum on Thursday.
As Mylovanov told Interfax-Ukraine, the forecast of the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) presented to President's Office expects the economy to grow by 5.1% in 2021 and by 4% in 2023.
According to him, inflation this year is expected at 7.3%, in 2022 and 2023 – 5.4% and 5%, respectively. At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate at the end of 2020 is projected at the level of UAH29.40/$1, at the end of 2022 – UAH30.20/$1, 2023 – UAH31/$1.
As expected in the President's Office, the average key policy rate of the National Bank this year will be 6.6% per annum, 6.9% next year and 7.2% in 2023.
The Ukrainian economy will expand 4.4% in
2021 according to the latest results of a Bloomberg News survey of 13 economists conducted from March 19 to March 24.
* GDP 2022 +3.8% y/y vs prior +3.6%
* CPI 2021 +6.9% y/y vs prior +5.6%
* CPI 2022 +5.6% y/y vs prior +5.6%
* Current National Bank of Ukraine rate at 6.50%
* End 2Q21 forecast at 7.00%
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Ukraine’s industrial production fell by 4.6% in February 2021 compared to the pre-Covid February a year earlier, and adjusted for the effect of calendar days (last year was a leap year), the reduction was noticeably smaller - 2%, the State Statistics Service said on March 23.
Industrial production growth in February was 0.3% m/m, and taking into account the seasonal adjustment - 0.4%.
A decline of 6.7% was recorded in the processing industry in February 2021 versus February 2020, in the extractive industry and quarrying - by 3.9%, while in the supply of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning - an increase of 1.9%.
Adjusted for the leap year, the reduction in production in processing was 4.4%, in the mining industry - 1.4%, and the growth in the supply of electricity and gas - 7.8%.
19 UKRAINE Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com