Page 56 - UKRRptApr21

9.1.6 Agriculture sector news
Ukraine since the beginning of the 2020/2021 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of March 26, 2021 had exported 34.45mn tonnes of grains and legumes, which is 22.6% less than on the same date of the previous MY. According to the information and analytical portal of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine, to date, 14.16mn tonnes of wheat, 15.64mn tonnes of corn, 4.06mn tonnes of barley have been exported. As of the indicated date, 96,200 tonnes of flour were also exported. As reported, the Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine in February predicted a decline in exports of grains and legumes in the 2020/2021 MY by 20.5% compared to the previous MY, to 45.4mn tonnes.
Ukraine grain harvest expected to rise 15% in 2021. Ukrainian farmers will harvest about 75.1 mmt of grains and 19.1 mmt of oil crops in 2021, according to a forecast published by Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskyi on March 4. The ministry’s forecast implies a 14.7% growth in the grain harvest and 3.2% increase in the oil crops harvest.
Oil crops are increase by 3.2% to 19mn tons. The harvest forecasts are: sunflower seeds +3% to 13.5mn tons; soy +11% to 3mn tons; and canola unchanged, at 2.6mn tons.
Based on the weather conditions and condition of winter crops, the ministry forecasts the harvest volume of corn at about 33.2 mmt (a 9.6% growth y/y), wheat harvested volume of 29.5 mmt (up 17.5% y/y), and barley harvested volume of 9.2 mmt (up 17.9% y/y) in 2021. Also, the ministry forecasts the sunflower seed harvest will increase 3.1% y/y to 13.5 mmt, the soybean harvest will rise 10.7% y/y to 3.1 mmt and the rapeseed harvest will be flat y/y, or about 2.6 mmt in 2021.
The forecast for harvested volumes implies that the corn yield will increase 11.6% y/y to 6.3 t/ha, the wheat yield will rise 10.7% y/y to 4.3 t/ha, the barley yield will increase 13.2% y/y to 2.7 t/ha, the sunflower seed yield will rise 6.4% to 2.2 t/ha, the soybean yield will grow 10.7% y/y to 2.4 t/ha, and the rapeseed yield will rise 10.0% y/y to 2.6 t/ha in 2021.
The ministry’s forecast looks reasonable taking into account the favourable weather and satisfactory conditions of winter crops so far. While the risk of adverse weather later in the year cannot be ignored, it is still very likely that the 2021 harvest will be much better in Ukraine than in 2020, when a three-year low result was recorded. That said, we expect that the agricultural segment will have a positive influence on Ukraine’s GDP growth this year.
Ukraine’s Economic Ministry has increased its estimate for this year’s grain exports to 45.7mn tonnes, up from the previous estimate of 45.4mn tonnes, the Ministry said on March 29/
Exports of grain from Ukraine in the 2020/2021 marketing year (MY) will grow by 300,000 tonnes, to 45.7mn tonnes, including 17.5mn tonnes of wheat and 23.5mn tonnes of corn, Deputy Minister for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine Taras Vysotsky at a meeting with agro-associations said as cited by Interfax Ukraine.
56 UKRAINE Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com