Page 18 - bne_Tech_03_2020

Fintech & E-commerce
March 2020 www.intellinews.com I Page 18
(on rapid marketplace growth), improvement in logistical infrastructure (three regional fulfilment centers plus phase 2 of the new Moscow fulfilment centre to be launched) and price investments.
VTBC forecasts Ozon.ru GMV to grow close to 70% in 2020, but potential for strong upside and maintaining 2019 growth numbers of close to 90% also exists.
At the same time, Ozon is still estimated to make an Ebitda loss of RUB300 per order, but could break even on earnings in 2022 due to
the economies of scale, higher order density (driving delivery and fulfilment costs lower), and
normalisation of marketing (primarily spent on customer acquisition).
Seeing Ozon as the “crown jewel” of Sistema’s assets, VTBC on a sum-of-the-parts basis estimates a 12-month RUB 25/share target price for the investment conglomerate (up from RUB 20.5/share), primarily on higher Ozon.ru and MTS mobile operator valuation, making a 35% estimated total return with a Buy recommendation.
BCS Global Markets recently said that Detsky Mir, another key asset of Sistema, remained its only Buy recommendation in the Russian retail universe, while it was also added to the Dividend Basket of best dividends payers in Russia.
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