Page 17 - Sample PRO weekly report Poland

Polish corporate and consumer loan portfolios swell in March
Polish banks’ loan portfolios increased in the corporate and consumer sectors in March, data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP) showed on April 24. However, lending in the mortgage sector continued its decline, driven down by the decline in the value of foreign currency loans.
Growth in the corporate and consumer sectors is a reflection of the improving macroeconomic situation. Polish industrial production and retail sales boomed in March, while sentiment indicators in the consumer and corporate segments improved in April.
Lending growth will be welcomed as an aid in pushing Polish banks closer to more sustainable profitability this year. While interest rates remain low, lenders appear to be handling adverse regulatory changes well. The bank tax introduced last year has been accommodated and the threat of forced conversion of foreign currency mortgage portfolios has largely disappeared.
The stock of corporate loans gained just over PLN1.3bn (€310mn), or 0.5% m/m, to total PLN301.4bn. In annual terms, the portfolio expanded 4.7% or PLN13.5bn, the NBP data showed.
Consumer loans pushed higher by 0.5% in monthly terms, with the stock growing PLN789mn to total PLN165.9bn. In annual terms, consumer loan stock grew 7.1%.
The stock of housing loans decreased, however, by 0.7% m/m or PLN2.7bn, to PLN401.7bn on the back of the value of FX loans dropping 3.3%. The PLN-denominated loan stock gained 1%. The annual gain came in at 3.4%.
The banks are still struggling with low margins due to regulatory caps on fee and commission income. Moreover, the government still plans to push banks into refunding currency spreads to FX borrowers, the cost of which may reach up to PLN9bn (€2.1bn). Polish banks posted net profit of PLN13.9bn last year.
Poland's 2016 economic growth has been revised by 0.1pp to 2.7% data from statistics office GUS showed on April 21.
The change in the reading was driven mainly by a sharper dip in investment, than previous data indicated. Gross fixed investment is now calculated to have fallen 7.9% last year, a lull that is 2.4pp deeper than the previous reading. The growth data was revised 0.1pp lower for each quarter last year save the last, which suffered a cut of 0.2pp.
GDP growth in 2016 was the slowest in three years with private consumption left to do much of the heavy lifting. The fall in investment was largely due to slow take-up of European Union funds, although it seems likely that private investment was trimmed by political risk also.
The economy has got off to a much better start in 2017, with March data on construction output, industrial production, and retail sales all pointing to acceleration. Analysts now claim the data suggest GDP may have expanded close to 4% y/y in January-March.
Poland's 2016 GDP growth revised 0.1pp lower to 2.7%
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