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3.2 Macro outlook
The analysts forecast Ukraine’s economy will grow 4% in 2021, after an expected decline by 4.8% in 2020. Inflation will be 6.1%, compared to 5% expected in 2020.
The decline in Ukraine's GDP in the first quarter of 2021 may be 3%, but for the whole of 2021 an increase of 4.6% is projected, Minister for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture Ihor Petrashko has said.
"We expect a growth of 4.6% of GDP [in 2021]. Many say that this is a high figure, which has not been there for many years. But we believe that this can be achieved," the minister said during the online forum Ukrainian Investment Roadshow.
He clarified that the economy will return to a positive trend in the second half of 2021.
"The negative effect of the pandemic will have a big impact early next year ... Obviously, GDP may fall by 3% in the first quarter of next year," Petrashko explained.
However, business support programs and soft loans will help mitigate the impact of the pandemic, the minister said.
14 UKRAINE Country Report January 2021 www.intellinews.com
