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1.8% y/y (vs. a 2.8% y/y drop in October). In 11M20, goods exports decreased by 3.8% y/y.
The financial account deficit amounted to $0.9bn in November ​(vs. a $1.2bn deficit in October). The net outflow related to the government sector amounted to $141mn, including the net payments to non-residents on local bonds of $142mn. The volume of cash foreign currency outside the banking system swelled by $702mn. Net inflow under trade loans amounted to $436mn.
“Ukraine’s external trade intensified in November, but exports and imports remained balanced, maintaining a C/A surplus. Ukraine’s exports picked up significantly amid restored growth in food exports, as well as swelled exports of mineral products, which is likely to be the result of increased global demand for iron ore. Meanwhile, the decline of imports slowed down significantly. The future trend in Ukrainian imports will largely depend on how fast the demand for imported machinery is renewed. In particular, it might be prompted by high government expenditures related to infrastructure projects. We expect Ukraine’s C/A surplus to be around $7bn in 2020 (vs. $4.1bn in 2019),” an analyst at the Kyiv-based Concorde Capital brokerage said in a research note.
5.2.3​ Gross international reserves
Ukraine ended the year with $29.1bn in reserves, a 15% y/y increase, ​the National Bank of Ukraine reported yesterday. The highest level in eight years, today’s reserves are enough to cover five months of imports, an ample cushion over the three-month level seen as adequate.
30​ UKRAINE Country Report​ January 2021 ​ ​www.intellinews.com