Page 49 - UKRRptJan21

Dragon Capital has won approval to buy Kyiv’s Unex Bank from Vadym Novynskyi​, reports Ukraine’s Antimonopoly Committee. Neither Dragon nor Novynskyi’s Smart Holding confirmed a sale to Interfax-Ukraine. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, Unex Bank ranked 64th out 74 banks in Ukraine with assets of $28mn. Founded in 1993, the bank originally focused on large industrial corporations in central Ukraine. It now has 22 branches in nine regions.
8.2 ​Central Bank policy rate
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) revealed further details of its decision of October 21 to keep its main policy rate unchanged in the minutes of its Monetary Policy Committee meeting released on November 2. ​They revealed nine of ten committee members spoke out in favour of keeping the main policy rate unchanged.
Both committee members acknowledged the increased complexity of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its effect on economic processes. Global economy renewal continues, but the higher incidence rate is hindering the process. Some countries are intensifying quarantine limits and reintroducing lockdowns.
Changes in consumer and investor behaviour may lead to more continuous cooling in global and domestic economies. However, it is difficult to accurately determine the magnitude and power of the pandemic's impact on economic and inflation processes.
The committee also noted the uncertainty surrounding the effect of fiscal parameters in 2020-2021, as well as the proceeds from international financial institutions (IFIs). These factors could significantly affect 2021-2022 inflation trend.
Most committee members believe recovering consumer demand and business operation will continue. This, combined with hryvnia devaluation and higher energy resource costs, will raise consumer prices. NBU expects market inflation to hit 4.1% YTD in 2020. In 2021, inflation will briefly go above the upper 4-6% target range.
Nine out of ten committee members decided that, given considerable uncertainty and inflation risks, the key policy rate should remain unchanged at 6%. The NBU believes that mounting risks prohibit commercial banks from lowering interest rates on credits and deposits. Moreover, views of banks regarding the quality of loan portfolios remain negative.
Increased risk is marked up in the credit interest rate structure. In particular, government bond interest rates have recently risen, resulting in a widening gap between government bond interest rates and the key policy rate.
One committee member increased the primary policy rate to 5.75%. The member claims that the worsening of the pandemic situation and potential strengthening of quarantine restrictions will adversely affect the population's income and restrain domestic demand renewal. This will have a strong disinflationary impact, outweighing other factors.
49​ UKRAINE Country Report​ January 2021 ​ ​www.intellinews.com