Page 10 - RusRPTSept21

generator for the government, and extending the retirement cut off by two years, both of which immediately hurt United Russia’s poll numbers and resulted in the party losing an increased number of regional elections. At that time, United Russia polled at around 35% (or around 40% when excluding those who said they ‘won’t vote’).
Going into the general election slated for September 17 United Russia’s polling results are even worse. In August alone, seven surveys from various companies have put the party at or below 30%, and under 40% when excluding those who plan to abstain – far short of what is required for a supermajority, reports RT.
However, analysts still assume that by rolling out its “administrative resources” the party will still secure a win. The Russian Parliament has 450 seats, and holding two-thirds of it – 300 seats – is considered a constitutional majority. Half of the benches are elected by proportional representation with a 5% electoral threshold, with the remaining contests taking place in single-member constituencies.
According to Boris Makarenko, the president of the Center for Political Technologies, the party is guaranteed to win 190 first-past-the-post districts and more than 100 seats from proportional representation.
“That would guarantee it a simple majority. And it may or may not get a constitutional majority,” he said, as cited by RT.
While Russia’s elections are clearly fixed, the issue for the Kremlin is it needs to win as many genuine votes as it can. Simply making up the result as is common in Central Asia is not an option as it would end in widespread protest. While the Kremlin can tinker at the edges to ensure it passes a crucial threshold like winning a clear majority, political scientists say that if the Kremlin attempts to add more than 10% to the vote then that will lead to protests.
That is what happened in 2011 when the Kremlin added some 12% to United Russia’s count, according to statisticians who studied the voting patterns. Some of the biggest mass protests erupted as a result with crowds of over 100,000 gathering in the Bolotnaya park immediately across the river from the Kremlin. In Belarus where Belarus' president Alexander Lukashenko is believed to have increased his win in the disputed August 9 presidential elections last year from circa 35% to 80%, mass rioting broke out only hours after the polls closed on the same day and has continued for more than a year.
10 RUSSIA Country Report September 2021 www.intellinews.com