Page 122 - RusRPTSept21

9.1.3 Aviation sector news
Pobeda is the cornerstone of Aeroflot Group’s development and the major reason for long-term investment into the name, says VTBC.
It is set to bring 40% of the Group’s EBITDA in 2025F vs. 11% in 2019, and accounts for 84% of the company’s value, we estimate. The key takeaways from Pobeda CEO Andrey Kalmykov's recent interview with RBC are provided in bold below (followed by our comments).
Traffic and profitability
Pobeda will exceed its target of 13.5mn PAX in 2021. If the July dynamic remains unchanged, we calculate that Pobeda will carry 14.5mn PAX, 31% of the Group's total, on our numbers.
As the only profitable passenger airline globally in 2020, Pobeda will stay in the black in 2021. This would help Aeroflot to reduce its net loss to just RUB 36bn in 2021F (vs. RUB 118bn in 2020) and return to profit in 2022F, we believe.
122 RUSSIA Country Report September 2021 www.intellinews.com