Page 137 - RusRPTSept21

9.2 Major corporate news 9.2.1 Oil & gas corporate news
● Gazprom
Gazprom‘s 2Q21 IFRS results were even stronger than expected and income increases just beginning.
Gazprom’s 2Q21 EBITDA of $9.5bn and net income of $7.0bn beat both BCS and Street estimates. Profitability was in fact very good, rising q/q despite what should be significant drop on seasonality factors, driven by realized European gas prices that rose c16% q/q. We think 2Q21 is only a stepping stone to a much stronger 2H21, given the massive, ongoing rally in European gas prices on spot and futures markets.
Event: Our initial takeaways are as follows:
· Revenue mixed: Sales of $27.9bn was -1% vs. BCS estimates and -2% vs. Interfax consensus.
· EBITDA modest beat: EBITDA1 of $9.5bn was +5% vs. BCS and +5% vs. the Street.
· Net income solid beat: Profit of $7.0bn was 13% above BCS forecasts and 12% above consensus.
· We estimate Gazprom’s dividend, based on 1H21 net income and including various adjustments, would be cRb16.7/sh, or a c5.6% DY on the first half alone. A couple of points need to be made about this:
· Gazprom does not pay interim dividends, so this is indicative only.
· Even so, this theoretical interim dividend would come close to
Gazprom’s full-year record dividend of Rb16.6/sh paid on 2018
results...
· ...and we expect 2H21 to be noticeably stronger than 1H21, so
Gazprom’s full-year 2021e dividend should easily set a new record in both $and RUBterms, perhaps breaking through Rb40/sh for the full year or >14% DY.
· European export sales revenues (including trading but net of duties and excise) came in at $9.8bn, 2% below our expectations of $10.0bn, flat q/q, but +140% y/y, reflecting the much-improved situation on the European gas market after a difficult 2020.
· Realized European gas prices came in at $225/mcm, +16% q/q
137 RUSSIA Country Report September 2021 www.intellinews.com