Page 166 - RusRPTSept21

only in 2022. Our current projections envisage a 27% decrease in net revenues, 43% drop in EBITDA and 45% decrease in adjusted net income in 2022 versus 2020. Based on these estimates, QIWI is currently trading at a 3.6 2022 EV/EBITDA and a roughly 7.5 P/E.
The company is looking into developing new niche products for self-employed individuals (scrap pickers, taxi drivers, web masters), as well as specific B2B payment solutions (for travel companies, for example), factoring and guarantees. Smaller segments where QIWI has tried to gain ground are yet to prove their potential and are quite hard to estimate at their potential mature-stage scale.
• Other
The US messaging platform WhatsApp has been fined RUB4mn rubles ($53,880) for refusing to localize Russian users’ data on the territory of the Russian Federation. This is the first such fine handed down to WhatsApp, Interfax reported on August 26. Russia’s media watchdog Roskomnadzor announced that Facebook and Twitter were also fined for repeatedly refusing to store Russian users’ data on the territory of Russia, which is required by law as the Kremlin tries to impose its “sovereign internet” concept. Facebook was fined RUB15mn ($201,975) and Twitter RUB17mn ($290,444). Russia’s law on “personal data” forbids companies from storing the personal data of Russian users outside of the country. According to Roskomnadzor, approximately 600 representative offices of foreign tech companies have localized Russian users’ personal data so far. This includes the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Samsung, PayPal, and LG. The Russian authorities banned the social network LinkedIn for violating the law on “personal data” in 2016.
EPAM continues to benefit from strong demand, as confirmed by its consensus-beating 2Q21 results.
Moreover, a significant increase of its FY21 guidance implies a strong outlook for the coming quarters. We now take a more upbeat view on EPAM’s longer-term prospects and increase our 2021-25F revenue forecasts 7-13%. On these changes, we raise our 12-month Target Price 17% to USD 600, which implies an ETR of 2%. Therefore, we reiterate our Hold recommendation. EPAM’s growth and sector positioning make it an attractive long-term story, but short-term upside depends on a further expansion of multiples in the low interest rate environment or upward revision of long-term growth projections to the high twenties. Our projected 2021-22F P/E of 53-68x are already at all-time highs, while EPAM’s historical growth was in the mid-twenties.
166 RUSSIA Country Report September 2021 www.intellinews.com