Page 186 - RusRPTSept21

increase could act as a warning to other utilities that the cost of investments might rise. Valuation and action: The announced capex guidance is above our estimates. After putting the updated guidance in our model and keeping all other things equal, we see a 26% decrease in the energy segment’s FCF in 2021 and a 40-50% decrease in 2022-24. En+ did not pay out dividends for several years, and its current dividend policy is to pay out 75% of the energy segment’s FCF but no less than $250mn per year. We base our dividend estimates for 2021-22 on the assumption that the total dividend payment will equal the minimal level of $250mn (DPS of $0.391/GDR, dividend yield of 4%). Although the higher capex guidance creates downside risks to our DCF valuation, our DPS expectations remain intact for 2021-22, as we base our dividend expectations on the approved dividend policy.
9.2.12 Transport corporate news
Global Ports reported 1H21 IFRS results and held a conference call on August 19. Revenues excluding VSC transportation services rose 7% y/y to $175.4mn, 0.3% below our forecast. Reported EBITDA came in up 8.5% y/y at $113.8mn, just 0.4% ahead of the consensus. EBITDA according to our definition (excluding other operating gains) climbed 7.9% y/y to $112.4mn, 0.2% above our forecast. Net income jumped 126% y/y to $53.9mn, 73% above our forecast, which was due to an FX gain, lower than expected net finance costs and a lower effective tax rate. FCF post net interest expenses was up 76% y/y to $63.7mn and supported further deleveraging. Net debt eased to $553mn, bringing net debt/EBITDA down from 2.9 at end-2020 to 2.5, in line with our expectation.
Sovkomflot (SCF) reported its 2Q21 IFRS results on August 26. The numbers exceeded our and the consensus estimates. TCE revenues increased 4% q/q to $285mn, 1% ahead of our estimate and 0.5% above the consensus. Adjusted EBITDA grew 16% q/q to $181.2mn, 14% and 5% ahead of our estimate and the consensus. Net income came in at $7.3mn after the $1.7mn net loss in 1Q21. The q/q top-line and EBITDA growth was driven by several factors. Revenues from crude oil transportation increased 3% q/q to $60.3mn alongside an improvement in profitability. Meanwhile, other revenues recovered from $2.2mn 1Q21 to $14mn in 2Q21 due to a new contract for the services of SCF's seismic vessel, as well as increased revenues from the company's two dry bulkers on the back of a stronger pricing environment. However, the company reported it had sold these bulkers toward the end of 2Q21, taking advantage of the opportunity provided by the strong price environment to decrease its exposure to coal transportation. The beat on our
186 RUSSIA Country Report September 2021 www.intellinews.com