Page 38 - RusRPTSept21

And although we are talking about a one-time action and about relatively small amounts of Rb10-15k per person, it is obvious that such a step should hinder efforts to curb inflation in the ST. As a result, over the next month or two, the annual inflation rate in Russia may rise to 7% y/y.
The International Monetary Fund predicts rapid economic growth for rich countries, with weaker growth in many emerging economies this year
The global economy is expected to grow by 6% this year, which means that the IMF's July forecast is unchanged from April. Next year, the global economy is forecast to grow by 4.9%, which is half a percentage point higher than expected in the April forecast. This year’s forecast rose on the back of major stimulus measures, especially in many rich industrialized countries - the U.S. economy, for example, is forecast to grow by 7%, up 0.6 percentage points from April. The improved economic outlook for rich countries will also have the biggest impact on raising the global economic forecast for next year.
The IMF lowered this year's growth forecast for many emerging economies, incl. China and India. In India in particular, the worsening of the corona epidemic is reflected in the growth forecast, which was reduced by three percentage points to 9.5 per cent. Growth forecasts for China and India are also quite similar at the World Bank and OECD. China’s GDP growth will slow markedly next year as the recovery from the corona pit is over.
In the case of Russia, e.g. the sharp rise in the price of crude oil is reflected in a higher growth forecast this year, GDP will grow by 4.4%. The IMF is clearly more optimistic in this respect than the EBRD and the World Bank, which previously published their forecasts. However, the growth projections for 2022 are almost identical for all of these institutions.
If the IMF forecasts come true, in 2022 GDP will be 17% higher in China, 10% higher in India and 4% higher in Russia than in 2019. However, it should be noted that the expected growth rate varies greatly from country to country - poorer countries tend to grow faster. If we compare the GDP development forecast by the IMF in October 2019 with the July forecasts of this year, the situation looks different. India's GDP next year would be almost 13% lower than forecast in 2019, meaning the economic impact of the pandemic has been very significant. In both China and Russia, the impact has been clearly smaller, with GDP next year to be about one per cent lower than forecast in 2019.
The official CBR macroeconomic forecasts are here.
38 RUSSIA Country Report September 2021 www.intellinews.com