Page 44 - RusRPTSept21

18.3% in August, up from 16.9% in June. The poorest Russians are most exposed to inflation which is highest in food product prices.
The expectations for the next twelve months are also three times higher than the CBR’s forecast of 4%. The median expectation for inflation was 12.5% in August, while poor Russians are expecting the rate to rise to 14%.
The CBR is predicting inflation of 5.6% for this year and 4% for next year.
4.2.2 PPI dynamics
In Russia, Rosstat reports the PPI for July. Producer prices were up +1.8% m/m / +27.7% y/y, close to the Bloomberg consensus expectations of +2.0% m/m / +27.8% y/y. In June, according to our estimates, the PPI run rate remained elevated at +2.8% m/m SA and was predominantly driven by metal prices, within both mining & quarrying and manufacturing (see the charts and discussion in the 'data and events' section).
44 RUSSIA Country Report September 2021 www.intellinews.com