Page 4 - MEOG Week 07

MEOG Commentary MEOG
Turkey flexes its
muscles but friends
are hard to find
Tensions and actions in Syria add to the potential number of countries that Turkey finds itself ranged against.
turkey
What:
Turkey and Russia’s recent friendship threatens to turn sour.
Why:
Differences in Syria are putting Turkey and Russia on a collision course.
What next:
There are several potential flashpoints which may involve Turkish action.
ThE spat between Turkey and Russia has become mainstream news after the latter accused Turkey of failing to abide by agreements in Syr- ia’s Idlib Province, warning that the situation was being aggravated by Turkish troops enter- ing the province and that these “militant” attacks on Syrian and Russian forces in the region were continuing.
The Kremlin made its comments after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country’s military would strike at Rus- sian-backed Syrian forces by air or ground any- where in Syria if another Turkish soldier was hurt as the Assad government tries to regain control of Idlib.
Violence has flared in Idlib, in north-west Syria and bordering Turkey, in recent weeks as government forces backed by Russia and Iran have made gains in their campaign to eliminate the last insurgent groups in Syria’s nine-year-old war.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last Wednesday that Moscow remained committed to a deal on Syria it had struck with Ankara, but that Russia considered Turkish militant attacks in Idlib to be unacceptable and in contravention of that same agreement.
Russia, a close ally of the Syrian government, hashed out a deal with Turkey in 2018 to create a de-militarised zone in Idlib, but those agree- ments and others between the two countries have come under strain amid mounting tensions in the region.
“In particular, according to this document (the agreement), the Turkish side undertook to ensure that terrorist groups in Idlib were neutral- ised,” said Peskov.
“We continue to note with regret that these groups are carrying out strikes from Idlib on Syrian forces and also taking aggressive action against our military facilities,” Peskov told reporters on a conference call. “This is “unacceptable and runs contrary to the Sochi agreements.”
Thousands of civilians, meanwhile, were
heading north to the Turkish-Syrian border, many trudging by foot through snow in freezing temperatures, to escape air strikes and artillery barrages by the Russian-supported government forces.
Erdogan said Turkey was determined to push the Syrian troops beyond Turkish observation posts in Idlib by the end of this month and that Ankara would not allow insurgents in Idlib to give them an excuse to attack.
It is only a few weeks since Turkey and Rus- sia came together to inaugurate the Turkstream gas pipeline which outflanks Ukraine and sup- plies gas in two strings – to Turkey and south- east Europe – each of which has the capacity to deliver 15.75bn cubic metres of gas annually.
The change from strategic co-operation to regional confrontation in such a short time has been exacerbated by President Erdogan’s recent visit to Ukraine – a country technically at war with Russia – and Turkey’s offer of $36mn in military aid to Kiev. This can be interpreted as a rebuke for Russia’s support for Assad and also as criticism of Russia’s treatment of the Tatars in Crimea, which Turkey still recognises as being part of Ukraine.
turkey’s regional presence
It does not seem long since neighbouring coun- tries in the East Mediterranean and Levant were looking to a stable and reliable Turkey as the country which had found a settled role and pol- icies for itself, allowing it to avoid many of the difficulties facing the region and to rise about the challenges of living in a world dominated by the clash between secular and non-secular values, or in another way of seeing it, Western and Eastern values.
Turkey was, uniquely, able to straddle these issues and with its membership of NATO and custodianship of moderate Islamic values, to show that it was possible to sit comfortably in both camps.
Over the past six months or so, Turkey has presented a different face to its neighbours (and
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 07 19•February•2020