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27, Johns Hopkins University economist Steve Hanke recorded the rate at 218% y/y. However, he has come under some criticism for basing his calculations solely on the Bonbast.com free market exchange rate. Some observers say the site is providing unreliable unofficial data and that more nuanced data is needed when calculating inflation.
In mid-November, the IMF predicted that annual inflation in Iran would leap to more than 40% by the end of 2018. At the time of the forecast, various data from official statistics agencies in the country showed Iran’s inflation rate running just north of 30% y/y . The IMF measured Iran’s 2017 consumer price growth at 9.6%.
4.2.2 PPI dynamics
Iran’s PPI up 53.9% y/y in 10th month of Persian year
The SCI announced that its analyses showed that the current PPI rate in the country stood at 53.9% in the 10th Persian calendar month. That indicates that Iran is entering hyperinflation territory.
This is in comparison to just an increase of 15.2% y/y in the fifth month of the 2018/2019 Persian calendar year (ended August 22).
The rise in the PPI can be partly ascribed to the severe devaluation of the Iranian rial (IRR) seen in recent months, with producers raising their prices to compensate for the feed-through into inflation.
4.3 Labour and income
4.3.1 Labour market, unemployment dynamics
Unemployment rate stood at 12.4% in last fiscal year
According to the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI), the country’s unemployment rate in the last fiscal year (ended March 20) stood at 12.4%, 1.4% up on the previous year. Youth unemployment (covering the 15-29 age range), stood at 25.9%, 2.6% up y/y. Despite the many times the government has stressed the need to boost employment, overall youth unemployment has risen more than 5% in the past three years.
The minimum monthly salary in Iran stands at IRR9.3mn ($240), while the
14 IRAN Country Report April 2019 www.intellinews.com