Page 25 - BELRptSept18

“Under the scenario of $65/bbl, we expect the deficit to widen to $2.0bn next year from $1.5bn this year,” Sberbank said in a note.
Belarus’ central state budget revenues totalled BYN11.5bn ($5.,7bn) in the first half of 2018, the Belarusian Finance Ministry said no August 2 handing the state a healthy surplus of BYN2.7bn.
The budget of the state administration sector amounted to BYN3.4bn. The surplus of the Social Protection Fund budget reached BYN0.3bn, that of the Universal Service Fund – BYN13.2mn, the Civil Aviation Fund – BYN6.2mn, the Punishment Execution Department Fund – BYN0.3mn.
Revenues of the state administration sector budget totalled BYN24.4bn in January-June 2018, 53.2% as against the revised annual target.
Revenues of the central state budget totalled BYN11.5bn, or 54.9% of the revised annual target.
Proceeds from VAT amounted to BYN5.1bn (50.7%), profit tax – BYN1.2bn (37%), excise duties – BYN1.2bn (50.6%).
Revenues from foreign trade operations totalled BYN2.7bn, 71.5% of the revised annual target. Revenues of the Social Protection Fund totalled BYN6.7bn, 49.5% as against the revised annual target. Revenues of the Universal Service Fund amounted to BYN20.2mn (52.5%), revenues of the Civil Aviation Fund – BYN16.3mn (78.7%), revenues of the Punishment Execution Department Fund – BYN0.4mn (33.3%).
As of 1 July 2018 arrears on tax and duty payments stood at BYN164.4mn. In the first half of 2018 the state administration sector budget spent BYN21bn, 46.5% as against the revised annual target.
The central state budget spent BYN8.8bn (43.5%). As much as BYN3.4bn (35.4%) was spent on nationwide activities, BYN2.3bn (54.5%) on financing the national economy, BYN6.8bn (48.3%) on financing the social sphere (social policy, education, healthcare, physical training, sport, culture, and mass media).
The Social Protection Fund spent BYN6.4bn (47.8% as against the revised annual target), the Universal Service Fund – BYN7mn (18.2%), the Civil Aviation Fund – BYN10.1mn (48.7%), the Punishment Execution Department Fund – BYN0.1mn (8.3%).
Fitch expects the general government to record low deficits of 0.8% and 1.2% of GDP in 2018 and 2019, respectively, reflecting lower surpluses at the consolidated level plus potential cost related to the materialisation of guarantees, banking sector capitalisation and the asset clean-up process. We forecast the "augmented deficit", which includes off-budget programme lending - adding to government debt - to be a little higher at 1.8% of GDP in 2018.
Fitch estimates that government debt (including guarantees) rose to 55.7% of GDP at end-2017 , still below the 'B' median. Belarus's debt is highly exposed to currency volatility (90% is FC-denominated), and interest rate risk (50% floating rate). Fitch includes government guarantees, estimated at 10.1%
25 BELARUS Country Report September 2018 www.intellinews.com