Page 20 - TURKRptFeb22

2.4 Foreign policy
Turkey could be drawn into a conflict scenario at Kabul airport at any moment as its personnel (only civilians) are open targets. It is said that Turkish military units are on standby in Pakistan to come to the rescue in the case of an emergency.
Such are Erdogan’s growing difficulties that Joe Biden’s tentative support may not be enough to keep him in post.
Erdogan became a good kid again in his relations with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Armenia (What happened to the story suggesting that Erdogan opposed the US hegemony in Nagorno-Karabakh?) in line with the Biden administration’s policy to demand US proxies do not jostle with each other while the US is focusing on China.
Armenia is the easiest task as it is too weak thanks to the latest disappointment, Nikol Pashinyan (Every time the people show a reaction, the person they send to change the established order is assimilated with the system. Examples are many. Latest ones include Syrizia in Greece and Zelensky in Ukraine.). The Arab states are heavily humiliating Erdogan. Political Islam, though, does not care about honour. Erdogan is doing what is required.
Israel is a separate case. The country was among the biggest supporters of Erdogan when he became the PM of Turkey in 2002. Starting from 2009, Erdogan began publicly and harshly criticising Israel.
However, the Erdogan regime and Israel have had no problems in reality. Erdogan has served for the destruction of Syria. What more could he do for Israel?
“Once he [Erdogan] used to call me Hitler every three hours, now it’s every six hours but thank God trade [between Israel and Turkey] is up,” ex-Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said in describing the situation.
Wars of words have occasionally continued, particularly prior to elections in both countries. Lately, Erdogan has again become the cooperative kid in relations with Israel.
The pipeline from Israel’s natural gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean is a gummed-up issue. The costs are high. Currently, gas prices are high and the pipeline would be feasible if it would run through Turkey. However, there is no guarantee that gas prices will remain at current levels.
The alternative sea route through Cyprus and Greece is actually not an alternative due to high costs.
When Israel first found the gas in 2010, the plan was a pipeline via Turkey. However, the country later on cancelled the plans since it did not want to deal with Erdogan’s caprices in addition to the feasibility problems.
The soap opera on the proposed pipeline project for the infeasible gas continues.
Erdogan will not be smashed between Russia and the US, even if Russia invades Ukraine.
A Russian invasion will not have a direct impact on Turkey. It will create only a limited speculative market fluctuation.
20 TURKEY Country Report February 2022 www.intellinews.com