Page 25 - UKRRptJul20

3.0​ ​Macro Economy
Business cycle indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.3%
-14.8%
4.1%
5.2%
0.2%
0.0%
-6.6%
-9.8%
2.3%
2.5%
3.3%
2.70%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.8%
-14.9%
7.1%
15.7%
8.4%
6.9%
-8.3%
-20.7%
1.8%
7.8%
8.9%
4.90%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.6%
-50.5%
3.9%
7.1%
5.0%
-6.7%
-24.0%
-9.2%
20.1%
18.2%
14.3%
7.00%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.2%
-21.9%
11.2%
8.0%
-0.7%
-4.3%
-10.1%
-13.0%
2.8%
0.4%
1.1%
2.50%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,383
2,983
3,559
4,021
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
112
131
146
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
3,117
2,134
2,193
2,638
3,077
3,336
CPI (eop)
22.3%
12.3%
9.1%
4.6%
-0.2%
0.5%
24.9%
43.3%
12.4%
13.7%
9.8%
7.10%
CPI average
25.2%
15.9%
9.4%
8.0%
0.6%
-0.3%
12.1%
48.7%
13.9%
14.4%
10.90 %
8.20%
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.9%
9.6%
8.9%
8.7%
8.2%
7.8%
9.7%
9.5%
9.7%
9.9%
9.1%
8.00%
Source: SP Advisors
3.1 ​Macroeconomic overview
The drop in investment dragged on Ukrainian GDP growth in 1Q20.
Ukraine's State Statistics Service has published its second estimate of GDP growth in 1Q20, along with a more detailed breakdown. The headline figure showed a 1.3% y/y contraction compared with 1.5% growth in 4Q19.
In seasonally adjusted terms, GDP was down 0.7% q/q. The weaker dynamics were mostly attributable to a drop in fixed capital investment (down 21.4% y/y in 1Q20 compared with 18.6% growth in 4Q19).
The consumption dynamics also worsened. Household consumption growth eased to 8.1% y/y in 1Q20 from 11.7% in 4Q19, while the drop in government consumption steepened to 9.7% from 6.8%.
The net export dynamics improved due to a decline in imports, which were down 4.0% y/y in 1Q20 after 2.4% growth in 4Q19, while export growth eased to 0.9% from 3.1%.
The breakdown showed a slump in transportation and storage, construction and public services. Value-added in the transportation and storage sector declined 8.6% y/y in 1Q20 after growing 4.3% in 4Q19, while construction activity was down 4.9% after being up 24.2% in 4Q19, likely due to a high base (it was up 27.7% y/y in 1Q19).
Public services also showed more sluggish dynamics in 1Q20, with the administration, defence and social services segment posting the biggest decline (a 3.9% y/y drop in 1Q20 after 6.3% growth in 4Q19).
25​ UKRAINE Country Report​ July 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com