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July 5, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 2
Opec said to prolong cuts by 9 months following Russia and Saudi Arabia approval
Moreover, the decision has put Russia in the driver seat in the coalition as the Kremlin has shown that it has the crucial vote in the agreement and can materially determine the target, and hence the price of oil, with the amount Russia decides to contribute to the production cut deal.
However, lower output of oil this year will not be helpful amid unexpectedly weak economic growth seen in the beginning of 2019. The across-the- board revision of Russian outlook in 2019 has been in part attributed to lower oil output as well.
The modest decline in oil output following the Opec+ deal is worsened by the ongoing crisis with the contaminated oil in Druzhba pipeline to Poland and Germany, which had Russia's oil output and exports drop in May and now posing risks to short-term outlook.
Russian debt and equity placements in 6M19 up 25% from 2018
hunter on NASDAQ. SPOs dominated the market, and the analysts surveyed by RBC believe that investors prefer quick accelerated book building deals with existing and liquid shares to avoid volatility.
At the debt capital market (DCM) 81 deals were closed in 1H19, worth $16.2bn versus 24 deals for $13bn for the entire 2018. The renewed interest in Russian assets is attributed to monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, lower perceived sanc- tion risks, recovery of Russian sovereign ratings to investment-grade levels.
Russian Market Data Value
1M YTD
Equity Indices
RTSI
1,412
8%
32.0
MOEX
2,843
5%
19.9
MSCI EM
1,065
6%
11.0%
S&P
2,996
7%
19.5%
NASDAQ
8,170
9%
23.1%
DAX
12,630
6%
20.0%
FTSE
7,604
5%
13.0%
Commodities
Price, $
1M YTD
Brent
63.2
3%
17%
WTI
57.3
7%
26%
Urals
74.2
-4%
65%
Gold
1,416
7%
10%
Silver
15.3
3%
-1%
Nickel
12,305
4%
16%
Copper
5,899
2%
-1%
Aluminum
1,771
1%
-5%
FOREX
Value
Russia sectors performance % YTD
1M YTD
EUR/RUB
71.64
-2%
-10%
Russia sectors performance % YTD
Oil & Gas Utilities Financials Consumers Telecoms
M&M RTS MOEX
38 30
28
32.0
14
20
19.9
0 10 20 30 40
26
Source: MOEX, BCS GM
source: MOEX, BCS GM
Sectors: % return YTD