Page 23 - UKRRptSept20

4.4 ​Labour and income
4.4.1​ Labour market, unemployment dynamics
Source: ICU
Unemployment rate (%)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 EFF
6.4 6.4 8.8 8.1 7.9 7.5 7.2 9.3 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.3 8.8
Unemployment is up 67% y/y since the beginning of quarantine measures,​ reports UNIAN citing the State Employment Service. Between March and August 2020, about 432,000 more Ukrainians were officially registered as unemployed. Given the large size of Ukraine’s shadow economy, the real number is likely to be higher.
During the summer harvest season, 9 million Ukrainians – or half of the nation’s total work force -- work in the EU​, according to Social Policy Ministry estimates cited by the Kyiv Post in an article titled: “Lured by conditions abroad, Ukrainian workers won’t stay home after quarantine eases.” Estimates of Ukraine’s workforce range from 16 to 19 million. Noting that EU wages are often four times Ukraine’s, the article notes: “In 2019, more than three million Ukrainians were legally working abroad, mainly in Poland, Finland, Germany and the Czech Republic.”
Poland issued 44% fewer visas to Ukrainians during the first half of the this year, compared to the same January-June period last year, ​reports the Warsaw Business Journal. The drop to 270,000 visas is not as dramatic as it seems because Poland suspended residency rules during the epidemic, meaning that “a large part of Ukrainians simply did not leave Poland.” Krzysztof Inglot, head of Personnel Service, a Polish employment agency, says: “Those who were already in our country had the opportunity to extend their stay...There is [now] an influx of new employees from the East, who are ready to undergo a two-week quarantine in order to work in our country.”
Estonia’s “strawberry war” had a messy ending after the government moved too late to allow Ukrainian workers into the Baltic country. ​Tons of the red berries rotted in the fields. Last Thursday, Wizzair was allowed to fly between Ukraine and Estonia. But flights were stopped the next day due to a rise in Ukraine’s coronavirus rate.
The number of job offers abroad for Ukrainians increased by 20% to 8,000, ​according to a popular job site analyzed by TSN.ua. “The greatest demand for Ukrainian workers continues to be in Poland, the Czech Republic and Germany,” the report said. Only 6% of Ukrainians in Poland are willing to work for Poland’s minimum wage, according to a survey by Studium Europy Wschodniej UW.
Ukrainian workers increasingly want to settle in Poland​, according to a new study by the National Bank of Poland. Of Ukrainians surveyed in Warsaw this summer, 52% want to stay for three years or more. In a similar survey in 2015, 8% said they wanted to stay for three years or more. 80% said they wanted to stay in Poland for less than one year. In the new national survey,
23​ UKRAINE Country Report​ September 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com