Page 28 - UKRRptSept20

5.0​ External Sector & Trade
Balance of payments
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Current account balance, USD bln
-12.8
-1.7
-3
-10.2
-14.3
-16.5
-4.6
-0.2
-3.5
-2.4
-4.5
-4.7
% GDP
-7.1%
-1.5%
-2.2%
-6.3%
-8.1%
-9.0%
-3.4%
-0.2%
-3.7%
-2.2%
-3.4%
-3.2%
Financial account balance, USD bln
9.7
-12
8
7.8
10.1
18.6
-9.1
0.6
4.7
5
7.4
4
% GDP
5.4%
-10.2%
5.9%
4.8%
5.8%
10.1%
-6.8%
0.6%
5.0%
4.5%
5.6%
2.7%
FDI net, USD bln
9.9
4.7
5.8
7
7.2
4.1
0.3
3
3.3
2.6
2.4
2.5
% of GDP
5.5%
4.0%
4.2%
4.3%
4.1%
2.2%
0.2%
3.3%
3.5%
2.3%
1.8%
1.7%
Gross NBU reserves (eop), USD bln
31.5
26.5
34.6
31.8
24.5
20.4
7.5
13.3
15.5
18.8
20.8
20.5
Monetary and banking indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Source: SP Advisors
5.1​ External sector overview
The Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine forecast ​a trade deficit of $5.4 billion (previously this figure was estimated at $8.3 billion).
Ukraine external goods trade balance switches to deficit in June
Ukraine’s external goods trade balance switched to a $648mn deficit in June from a $44mn surplus in the prior month, the State Statistics Service said in its preliminary report published on August 14.
The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit reached $717mn (vs. a $409mn deficit in May) amid 7.9% m/m growth in adjusted exports and a 15.4% m/m surge in adjusted imports.
Goods exports fell 5.7% y/y in June to $3.4bn (vs. a 24.1% y/y drop in May). The decline was mostly driven by falling exports of ferrous metals (-17.1% y/y) and grains (-22.2% y/y). At the same time, exports of food oils and fats surged 31.2% y/y, chemicals exports jumped 22.1% y/y, and machinery exports picked up 10.1% y/y.
Goods imports declined 14.3% y/y to $4.0bn in June (vs. a 33.1% y/y plunge in May). In particular, imports of energy products plummeted 48.9% y/y, machinery imports decreased 7.0% y/y, and imports of chemicals dropped 9.0% y/y. At the same time, imports of foods jumped 26.0% y/y.
In 1H20, the goods trade deficit amounted to $1.3bn (vs. $3.8bn in 1H19). Goods exports slid 6.4% y/y, while goods imports dropped 14.3% y/y.
“Ukraine’s exports in June were mostly restrained by weak demand for the two major exports items – ferrous metals and grains. On the other hand, the
28​ UKRAINE Country Report​ September 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com