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The State Statistics Service reports exports to China rose 93%yoy to $3 billion, to Poland dropped 14%, to $1.5 billion; and to Russia dropped 17%, to $1.3 billion. Overall, Ukraine exported $22.9 billion worth of goods and imported $24.2 billion. For imports, Ukraine’s imports from China dropped 7%, to $3.6 billion; from Germany dropped 17%, to $2.5 billion; and from Russia dropped 43%, to $2.2 billion.
Belarus is Ukraine’s fourth largest trading partner​, largely a transit country for goods restricted by the Russia-Ukraine trade war. Despite this close economic relationship, President Zelenskiy probably will not travel to Grodno, Belarus on Oct. 8-9, for an annual bilateral trade and investment conference. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told UA: Ukrainian Radio on Friday: “Until the situation in Belarus stabilizes, it would be reckless to announce any visit or initiative.”
5.2.2​ Current account dynamics
The surplus of Ukraine’s current account (C/A) shrank to $360mn in July from $765bnmn in June​, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported on August 31.
The trade deficit widened to $0.6bn from $0.2bn in June, with the goods trade deficit swelling to $1.0bn from $0.8bn in June. The primary income account reached a $661mn surplus (vs. a 688mn surplus in June), while the secondary income account surplus amounted to $310mn (vs. a 295mn surplus in June).
In 7M20, the current account surplus amounted to $7.0bn (vs. a $2.9bn deficit in 7M19).
Goods imports slid 21.6% y/y to $4.3bn in July, vs. a 16.9% y/y plunge in June. The decline was mostly due to the drop in imports of mineral products of 45.3% y/y (vs. a 50.4% y/y fall in June) and the decline of machinery imports of 6.6% y/y (vs. 25.4% y/y in June). Meanwhile, food imports jumped 16.7% y/y (vs. a 6.6% y/y decline in June). In 7M20, goods imports dropped 17.4% y/y.
The decline in goods exports accelerated to 15.9% y/y to $3.3bn in July from a drop of 6.7% y/y in June. In particular, the fall in food exports accelerated to 16.1% y/y (vs. 5.0% y/y in June), the decline of ferrous metals exports deepened to 23.3% y/y (vs. a 18.7% y/y drop in June). In addition, exports of mineral products plunged 21.4% y/y (vs. 3.6% y/y growth in June). At the same time, exports of chemicals accelerated to 25.7% y/y growth (from a 18.7% y/y growth in June). In 7M20, goods exports declined 7.5% y/y.
The financial account deficit increased to $449mn in July from $211mn in June. In particular, the net outflow on foreign direct investment was estimated at $256mn. The net foreign currency outflow from the banking sector amounted to $628mn.
At the same time, the net inflow from the state sector amounted to $131mn as a result of inflow generated by the placement of international Eurobonds for $1.1bn and the outflow of €0.6bn related to the repayments on obligations to the E.U. and net payments to non-residents on local bonds ($0.3bn). The net foreign currency inflow from trade loans amounted to $396mn.
32​ UKRAINE Country Report​ September 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com