Page 27 - bne_March2019_20190306 magazine

bne March 2019 Central Europe I 27
When the European Commission tabled amendments to the EU’s gas directive in 2017, it seemed to address Poland’s concerns over the pipeline as giving Russia too big a role in supplying gas
Lithuania wary of Russian
meddling in busy election
to the bloc.
season
Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw
Russia is gearing up to influence the outcome of elections in Lithuania in 2019 and 2020, the Baltic state’s security agency VSD and the ministry of defence said in a joint report on February 5.
Long subject to Moscow, Lithuania has seen Russia as the major geopolitical adversary since gaining independence during the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. Vilnius’ worries about its big neighbour peaked in 2014 follow- ing Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, which fuelled fears Lithuania and other Baltic states Latvia and Estonia could become the next targets.
As European, local, parliamentary, and presidential elections are all due in 2019 and 2020, the EU and Nato member Lithuania will be the focus of Russia’s disruptive activity, the VSD said in a report on the state of Lithuanian security.
Russia is also likely to use the help of Belarusian intelligence services in order to collect information – such as on the armed forces or critical infrastructure – and exert hostile influence on Lithuania.
“The upcoming elections in 2019 and 2020 provide an opportunity for Rus- sia to seek influence in the Lithuanian political processes from the municipal to the European level,” the report said.
The EU’s energy mix is nearly 25% natural gas, 70% of which is imported with Russia supplying some 40% of that. The second biggest supplier, Norway,
is responsible for about 25%.
The amendments would put Nord Stream 2 under EU rules stating owner- ship of gas transmission infrastructure must be separate from that of the com- modity itself. The rules would apply to all gas projects in the EU even if they are originated outside the bloc, which is often the case, given the EU’s depen- dence on gas imports.
However, Germany – whose firms are heavily invested in the project – sought to exempt Nord Stream 2 from those rules. Berlin’s plan seemed unwork- able because it lacked the necessary majority to challenge the Commission’s proposal – until France lent its support.
The key element of the compromise text now shifts oversight of the pipeline’s compliance with the EU law from the Commission to the country in which the pipeline will enter the EU territory. In the case of Nord Stream 2, that is obvi- ously Germany.
That is a setback for Poland, which was pushing for a bigger EU control over the pipeline. But Warsaw can still influence changes in the proposed regulation in the trilogue, where the European Par- liament will be represented by the for- mer Polish Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek.
Once built, Nord Stream 2 will double Russia’s capacity to export gas to the
EU. The consortium building the €10bn pipeline consists of Russia’s Gazprom as well as German companies Uniper and Wintershall, France’s Engie, British-Dutch Royal Dutch Shell, and Austria’s OMV.
“The 2019–2020 election cycle will likely be the main object of Russian interests. It is possible that Russia will seek to sway the course of elections by information and cyber means.”
Russia dismissed the report’s claims as “absolute nonsense,” Reuters reported. “Russia does not interfere in elections in other countries,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
But the concern that Russia might med- dle with the elections to the European parliament, due to take place in May, is widespread in the EU.
The report also notes Russia’s continued military build-up in the Kaliningrad region, the Russian exclave that borders on Lithuania and Poland.
“Russia strengthens its capabilities to start execute combat orders with 24-48 hours' notice. Significance of the military force as one of the main instruments of the Russian foreign and security policy increases,” the report cautioned.
“Growing defence capabilities of the Bal- tic States and NATO military contingents deployed in the region considerably reduce chances that Russia would resort to military means against the Baltic States,” it said, however.
www.bne.eu