Page 5 - bne_March2019_20190306 magazine

bne March 2019 The Month That Was I 5
Economics
Eastern Europe
Minister of Economy Maxim Oreshkin admitted that the 2.3% GDP growth result for 2018 – a six year high – reported by Rosstat in January was
“not sustainable” and “due to one-off factors.” The result raised eyebrows after Rosstat, which is now under the direct control of the Ministry of Economy, revised the construction output up in 2018 and boosted the overall growth figure dramatically.
Russia’s inflation in 2019 will be higher than the official forecast of the Economic Development Ministry
at 4.3%, but will remain below 5%, Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin told reporters.
Russia’s VAT hike boosted Rus-
sia's budget revenues in January.
The Finance Ministry on February 15 reported that budget revenues climbed 13.9% y/y in January to RUB1.5 trillion ($22.6bn). The growth was mainly driv- en by non-oil and gas revenues, which surged 25% y/y; oil and gas revenues rose just 2.9% y/y.
Russia’s industrial output slowed
to 1.1% y/y in January from 2% in December 2018, Rosstat reported on February 18. Russia’s industrial and manufacturing activity is slowing after
a relatively robust 2018, which saw industrial production growth of between 2-3% most months. However, analysts expect industry to pick up in the second half of the year.
In January 2019 Belarus consumer goods and services inflation was 0.9% m/m against December 2018 and 5.8% y/y against January 2018, representatives of the National Statistics Committee of Belarus told BelTA.
Belarus' merchandise exports were up by 15.3% to $33.7bn in 2018 accord- ing to the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The EEU accounted for 41.2%
of Belarus' total export volume (46.7%
in 2017), the EU 30.2% (26.8%), other countries 28.6% (26.5%).
Foreign investors poured $10.8bn into the real sector of the Belarusian economy (except for banks) in 2018, according to the National Statistics Com- mittee. The main investors were from Russia (38.3%), the UK (25.7%), and Cyprus (7.8%). Foreign direct invest- ments amounted to $8.5bn, 78.7% of
all the foreign investments received.
Central Europe
Hungary will adopt the euro "in the coming decades" and needs to learn from the lessons of the past concern- ing the processes affecting the common currency, central bank (MNB) governor Gyorgy Matolcsy said. Matolcsy's com- ment signals that there is no change in the government's or in the MNB's posi- tions regarding the intention to intro- duce the euro.
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) left interest rates at their cur- rent record low of 1.5%, once again hinting that any tightening of monetary policy might not come before the end of 2020. Fast economic growth accompa- nied by only moderate inflation provide no premises for a change in monetary policy at the moment, the MPC said in the statement following the decision.
Slovak economic growth reached its peak in 2018 at 4.3% and is expected to slow down to 4% this year, due to weak- ening demand abroad, according to a macroeconomic prognosis by the finance ministry. Despite a weaker estimate of
Slovak economic growth, real salaries will increase by 4%. The unemployment rate will continue to fall until 2022.
Polish industrial production growth expanded to an unadjusted 6.1% y/y in January, data from statistical office GUS showed. The headline figure marks a clear and surprising pick-up against unadjusted growth of just 2.8% y/y in December.
Southeast Europe
The Kosovan parliament endorsed the 2019 budget in the second reading, ending the halt in state spending and thus avoiding a crisis in the country. The government adopted the budget
in October, but the parliament failed
to vote it in due to the lack of sup-
port from opposition parties. Finally, the opposition Social Democrat Party (PSD) decided to vote for the bill.
Albania's central bank maintained its key interest rate unchanged at 1%. The bank said the new economic and monetary information suggests that the Albanian economy continues on a posi- tive development trend.
Eurasia
Azerbaijan’s economy grew by 2.9% y/y in January, with GDP amounting to AZN5.9bn ($3.5bn) in the month, the State Statistics Committee said. GDP per capita stood at AZN601.1.
Mongolia’s economy grew by 6.9% y/y in 2018, up from the 5.1% growth recorded in 2017, the latest data published by the National Statistics Office showed. The recovery was mainly achieved on the back of growing minerals output and exports and improved world commodities prices.
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