Page 16 - TURKRptAug20

Budget (TRYbn, May)
-23.5
-29.9
-47.8
-72.6
-36.16
-42.4
-7.2
-37.9
-123.7
-29.6
-79.9
-
Budget Balance/GDP (%)
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.9
-3.9
-4.1
-0.6
-3.2
-2.9
-2.8
-
-
USD/TRY (eop, Jul 30)
2.92
3.53
3.79
5.29
5.56
5.79
5.65
5.95
5.95
6.61
6.85
6.98
source: imf, tuik, treasury, central bank
Turkey’s economy is “only one shock away from a crisis”, Maya Senussi, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, ​told​ the New York Times on July 29.
3.1 ​Macroeconomic overview
The Reuters poll, conducted among economists both inside and outside Turkey from July 21-23, ​produced​ a median forecast for a GDP contraction of 4.3% in 2020, with drops in the second and third quarters of 12.2% and 3.1%, respectively.
Other poll predictions included the central bank cutting its policy rate to 8.00% by the end of this year from the 8.25% it stuck with at a July 23 rate-setting meeting; official annual inflation declining from its June level of 12.6% to 10.2% by the end of the year; and the current account balance swinging to a deficit of 2.3% of GDP.
4.0​ Real Economy 4.1​ Industrial production
Electricity consumption in Turkey declined, for the fourth month in a row, by 2% y/y to 22.5bn kWh in June​ but suggested a 15% m/m recovery compared to May, according to ​data​ from the Energy Exchange Istanbul.
Consumption collapsed by 17% y/y to 19.6bn kWh in coronavirus (COVID19)-troubled May after plunging 15% y/y to 19.1bn kWh in April, the lowest level recorded since 2013.
As a result, electricity consumption contracted by 11% y/y to 61.3bn kWh in Q2 after growing 3% y/y in Q1.
16​ TURKEY Country Report​ August 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com