Page 8 - bne_newspaper_June_28_2019

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June 28, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 8
“The growth momentum trend in food retail turnover has been stable at +0.2% m/m sa 3mma [seasonally adjusted three-month moving average] since 2018, while the growth momentum in non-food retail sales is trying to settle in the black and is now running at +0.06% m/m sa 3mma,” Isakov added.
Real wages are rising, but too slowly as with economic growth of only 0.5% in the first quarter y/y there is little momentum in the economy. Real wages increased +2.8% y/y in May, while the growth in April was revised up from the flash estimate of +1.6% y/y to +3.1% y/y.
“We note that personal income tax revenues have been growing faster than the average nominal wage recently. In April, the former grew +15.8% y/y, while the latter added +8.4% year- on-year,” says Isakov.
Construction output, one of the three main drivers of economic growth, remained stagnated at +0.2% y/y in May; the maximum growth rate registered this year was +0.3% y/y, in February.
“Nonetheless, the surge in construction-related products might foreshadow an increase in construction activity,” says Isakov.
Labour shrinking makes itself felt
The unemployment rate remains depressed at historic lows and decreased again from +4.7% in April to +4.5% in May.
Rosstat’s latest labour market survey, which is based on the methodology of the International Labour Organization (ILO), finds that the employed population (aged 15-72 years) fell by about 1% y/y in the first quarter of this year. The contraction in the number of unemployed is now in its third year, reports Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT).
In the four-quarter period from April 2018 to March 2019, the employed population averaged just over 72mn, while the number of unemployed averaged 3.6mn. After several years of increase, the employment rate fell slightly this year. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7%.
The size of Russia’s total labour force, which includes both employed and unemployed workers, witnessed an unusually large decline this year. At the same time, the number of persons outside the labour force increased. The increase is due almost entirely to the over 1mn persons in the potential labour force, i.e. not actively seeking work, but who would like to have a job.