Page 38 - GEORptApr20

8.4 ​International ratings
Georgia - Rating agency
as of February 2020
Bond rating: Moody’s
Ba2 (Stable)
Bond rating: Fitch
BB (Stable)
Bond rating: S&P
BB (Stable)
Fitch affirms ‘BB’ rating for Georgia
Fitch Ratings has affirmed the rating for Georgia's long-term foreign currency debt at ‘BB’ with a stable outlook, pointing to governance and business environment indicators above the current medians of category peers and a track record of macroeconomic resilience against regional shocks.
The strengths are balanced by government debt's significant exposure to foreign-currency risk, high financial dollarisation and external finances that are significantly weaker than the majority of category-rated peers, the agency said.
Georgia’s real GDP growth in 2019 was estimated by Fitch at 5.2%, outperforming the agency's 4.3% projection, and up from 4.8% in 2018. The impact on the country’s tourism sector (7.6% of GDP in 2018) from Russia's flight embargo, in place since June 2019, has been weaker-than-expected as higher visitor numbers from Turkey and the EU have offset the fall in visitors from Russia.
Economic growth in Georgia is forecast by Fitch to ease to 4.4% in 2020; just above the five-year average growth rate (4.2%) of 'BB' category peers. The slower growth mainly reflects a weaker outlook for domestic demand due to a tighter monetary policy.
Downside risks are significant. Ongoing uncertainty in global trade markets, in addition to recent domestic social and political unrest, could weigh on growth prospects, particularly investment. Inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) have slowed since mid-2018, partly due to the winding down of the TANAP gas pipeline project, but also due to a weak Turkish economy.
38​ GEORGIA Country Report ​April 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com