Page 31 - UKRRptApr19

6.0 Public Sector 6.1 Budget
Budget and debt indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
State budget revenues, UAH bln
231.7
209.7
240.6
314.6
346
339.2
357
519
616.3
724
905.2
% of GDP
24.4%
23.0%
22.3%
24.2%
24.6%
23.2%
22.8%
26.9%
26.2%
26.3%
25.8%
State budget expenditures, UAH bln
244.2
245.2
304.9
338.1
399.4
403.9
435
552
686.4
806
1,001
% of GDP
25.8%
26.8%
28.3%
26.0%
28.4%
27.6%
27.8%
29.2%
28.9%
29.3%
28.5%
State budget balance, UAH bln
-12.5
-35.5
-64.3
-23.6
-53.4
-64.7
-78
-33
-70.1
-82
-96
% of GDP
-1.3%
-3.9%
-6.0%
-1.8%
-3.8%
-4.4%
-5.0%
-1.7%
-3.0%
-3.0%
-3.0%
Public debt, UAH bln
189
318
432
473
516
584
1,101
1,594
1,930
2,175
2,285
% GDP
20.0%
34.8%
40.1%
36.4%
36.7%
39.9%
70.3%
82.7%
82.1%
79.0%
65.2%
S ource: SP Advisors
6.1.1 Budget dynamics - results
Ukraine's 2M19 state budget revenue rose 12.0% y/y to UAH125bn ($4.6bn), which is 1.0% below plan, the State Treasury provisionally reported on March 1.
Net tax revenue inched up 0.2% y/y to UAH97.0bn (11.1% below plan). Customs revenue declined 3.2% y/y to UAH48.1bn (9.4% below plan). Meanwhile, the budget’s special fund revenue nearly doubled to UAH23.9bn, outperforming plan by 75.3%.
In February alone, Ukraine’s state budget revenue surged 24.8% y/y to UAH70.2bn, which is 8.3% y/y above plan. The unusual rise was mostly due to the budget’s special fund revenue from the customs amnesty of vehicles acquired in 2014-2018 but registered in EU states (to avoid Ukrainian fees). In particular, special fund revenue swelled 234.5% y/y to UAH13.6bn, which is almost double above plan.
Net tax revenue in February increased 17.7% y/y to UAH42.1bn. In particular, net VAT receipts jumped 19.9% y/y (1.9% above plan). VAT reimbursement grew 13.1% y/y. Meanwhile, customs revenue increased 4.1% y/y, which is 7.2% below plan.
Local fiscal revenue in 2M19 improved 22.1% y/y to UAH41.9bn, underperforming plan by 1.7%. Social payments (pension and other social fund contributions paid by employers) advanced 23.9% y/y to UAH40.0bn.
The State Treasury also published information on revenues from the customs amnesty of vehicles with EU license plates, which extended from November 25
31 UKRAINE Country Report April 2019 www.intellinews.com