Page 4 - AsiaElec Week 06

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec
IEA data heralds end to emissions growth
Higher solar and wind output, together will new nuclear reactors and the switch from coal to gas, has driven down power-related emissions in developed economies
GLOBAL
WHAT:
2019 power-related emissions stays flat at 33.3bn tonnes
WHY:
Rising emissions in developing countries cancelled out falling output in developed economies
WHAT NEXT:
Falling power demand
in India and China kept down emissions, and that canot be banked on the future, unlike the rise of renewables
GLOBAL energy-related emissions levelled out in 2019 at 33.3bn tonnes following two succes- sive annual increases in 2017 and 2018.
Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) showed that reining in output growth was the result of falling CO2 emissions in the power sector in advanced economies – largely driven by the rise of wind and solar – higher nuclear power output and fuel switching from coal to natural gas.
Advanced economies produced 11.3bn tonnes in 2019, down from 11.7bn tonnes in 2018 and continuing a steady downward trend since the peak of 13bn tonnes in 2007.
In contrast, emissions in developing econo- mies, including the biggest emitters China and India, continued their upward trend to 22bn tonnes in 2019, up from 21.1bn tonnes in 2017 and 21.6bn tonnes in 2018.
What this means is the falling energy-related emissions in Europe and the US are being can- celled out by growth in China and India.
“We now need to work hard to make sure that 2019 is remembered as a definitive peak in global emissions, not just another pause in growth,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director.
“We have the energy technologies to do this, and we have to make use of them all. The IEA is building a grand coalition focused on reducing emissions – encompassing governments, com- panies, investors and everyone with a genuine commitment to tackling our climate challenge.”
One positive indicator is that the zero growth posted for 2019 was accompanied by economic growth of 2.9%, indicating the power generation is, on average, becoming more efficient in emis- sions terms.
The IEA noted that milder weather in several countries and slower economic growth in some emerging markets had also contributed to zero growth.
Data dig
Digging down into the data, the US posted the largest decline in energy-related emissions, pro- ducing 4.8bn tonnes, a decline of 2.9%, or 140mn tonnes.
EU emissions fell by 5% to 2.9bn tonnes, as output from coal-fired power plants dropped by
more than 25% in 2019, while gas-fired genera- tion increased by close to 15% to overtake coal for the first time.
Germany posted the biggest decline at 8%, while both the UK and Germany saw renewables accounting for 40% of total power generation.
Japan saw energy-related CO2 emissions fall 4.3% to 1.030mn tonnes in 2019, the fastest pace of decline since 2009.
In developing economies, Asia accounted for 80% of the 400mn tonnes of new emissions. Coal demand continued to expand, accounting for over 50% of energy use, and is responsible for around 10bn tonnes of emissions.
Cross Head
While the results are welcome, there is still doubt over whether the drivers of the data are perma- nent, such as the rise of renewables, or cycli- cal, such as this year’s nuclear boost or slowing power demand in China and India.
We now need to work hard to make sure that 2019 is remembered as a definitive peak in global emissions, not just another
Other variables include falling prices of both pause in growth
LNG and renewables, meaning that coal is now uncompetitive in more and more Asian mar- kets, especially with the global LNG supply glut.
Nevertheless, given the urgency of meeting Paris Agreement targets, there is no room for complacency. Much more needs to be done by governments, investors and utilities to pro- mote green energy and to continue reducing emissions.™
Fatih Birol
IEA executive director
P4
w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m
Week 06 12•February•2020