Page 20 - bne IntelliNews weekly newspaper – Russians lose showdown at EBRD AM

Eurasia
May 12, 2017 www.intellinews.com I Page 20
Oyu Tolgoi gold and copper mine, improvements in the investment climate and better consumer confidence.
Growth in Uzbekistan is expected to moderate to 6.2% in 2017 “negatively affected by dislocations in the domestic economy as a result of tight currency controls and dual exchange rates”, which have a constraining effect on competitive industries and discourage FDI, the EBRD said.
The fastest-growing economies in the Caucasus/ Eastern Europe region this year are expected
to be Georgia (3.9% GDP growth forecast) and Moldova (3%). Belarus and Azerbaijan are expected to remain in recession this year, with economic contractions of 0.5% y/y each.
Hydrocarbon-dependent Azerbaijan saw its economy contract by 3.1% y/y in 2016, on the back of oil and gas price volatility and a gradually declining oil output. Its negative performance affected the output of the entire region in 2016, the EBRD said. The country is not expected to return to growth until 2018, when it is expected to post 2% GDP growth.
Georgia's GDP growth slowed slightly to 2.7% y/y in 2016, from 2.9% in 2015, but it is expected to bounce back to 3.9% y/y in 2017 and 4.2% in 2018 on the back of a recovery in consumption and strong domestic and foreign investment in infrastructure and other sectors, the EBRD said.