Page 4 - MEOG Week 09

MEOG Commentary MEOG
Iran rocked by coronavirus outbreak as OPEC gathers
OPEC struggles to find agreement while the disease spreads and its next meeting will be important.
Iran
What:
The virus and the resulting economic fallout have provided a perfect storm.
Why:
Economic and social activity have ground to a halt in those countries most affected.
What next:
OPEC and its allies will hopefully find agreement on output cuts.
ThErE have been more than 86,000 reported cases of the coronavirus (covid-19) worldwide and 2,942 deaths since the disease emerged late last year - the vast majority in China.
Most of the world’s focus on the corona virus has been on the epicentre of China, but latterly and relentlessly other countries have come under the radar, as the disease has spread to them. Japan, South Korea and Italy have been foremost in this as has Iran.
Iran in the firing line
Iran has recorded the second highest number of coronavirus deaths outside of China and is struggling to contain the disease. This is raising fears that the outbreak will spread into neigh- bouring countries where fragile health systems and weak government control would make fight- ing the deadly illness even more difficult.
Initial reports indicate that the carrier of the virus may have been a merchant who travelled between Qom and Wuhan, in China, where covid-19 is believed to have originated. By March 1, Iran’s official health service admitted to 978 deaths from the virus; most of these are from the capital, Tehran, and the city of Qom, where cases of covid-19 first emerged.
Qom receives business travellers and Islamic pilgrims from all over the globe and has the highest number of Shia Muslim clerical students in the world. A few hundred of those students are believed to be Chinese nationals.
Can the figures be trusted?
After weeks of denying that any Iranian had been diagnosed with coronavirus, health ministry officials confirmed that two people had tested positive for covid-19 in Qom on Wednesday last week.
Later on the same day the officials confirmed their deaths. The short time between the confir- mation of the infections and the deaths puzzled many in Iran and fuelled public suspicions that officials had intentionally hid the presence of the virus for some weeks.
The outbreak has come at a moment when public trust in the Islamic regime is at a record low after Iran’s armed forces mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet in January,
killing all 176 people on board, including many Iranians, and allegedly tried to cover up the incident.
Deputy health Minister Iraj harirchi was filmed mopping his brow at a news conference before testing positive for coronavirus disease, and Vice-President for Women’s and Family Affairs, Masoumeh Ebtekar announced that she, too, had contracted the coronavirus.
There is concern that the virus will spread further within the government. A day before confirming she had tested positive for the virus, Ebtekar attended a cabinet meeting with President hassan rouhani and other cabinet ministers.
The health ministry categorically denies that it has hidden coronavirus cases and insists peo- ple’s health is its top priority. In a stern warning, six Canadian epidemiologists using a mathemat- ical model based on objective factors calculated that Iran probably had more than eighteen thou- sand cases of coronavirus.
Can Iran contain the outbreak?
Iran has a well-developed health sector, and has recent experience of controlling the outbreak of diseases. It eradicated polio in the first decade after the revolution and last year prevented the spread of type-B flu.
But its capacity to contain coronavirus is less certain. Iran is struggling under the eco- nomic impact of US sanctions and Iranians are increasingly concerned that restrictions will lead to shortages of vital medical supplies. Iran has granted top priority to its food and medical sectors, while European pharmaceutical com- panies have waivers from the US to supply Iran with medicines.
Friday prayers in Tehran and 22 other cities were cancelled, and schools and universities closed.
Thousands of Iranians have also been stranded inside and outside the country as many flights have been stopped to and from Iran and health Minister Saeed Namaki announced that all schools would be closed for at least three days from Saturday as a precaution.
The head of the World health Organization’s (WhO) emergencies programme, Dr Michael
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 09 04•March•2020