Page 11 - TURKRptNov21

2.2 Discussion: How will Erdogan regime end?
Erdogan is too frail and sick to go on, say some observers. Debates as to how the Erdogan regime will end are 10 a penny.
If an election was to be held, Erdogan would currently stand no chance against any rival, including empty water bottles (if you listen to how some people in street interviews respond to questions on whom they would vote for).
From the opposition parties to fugitive paramilitary gang leaders, everyone in Turkey has been awaiting political murders. The Erdogan regime has dug itself one hell of a hole. It is only getting deeper and the alternatives that present themselves include staying in power at any cost, fleeing abroad (where could be safe?), or getting intimately introduced to the inside of a prison cell.
Turkey is still able to roll over its foreign debts—but each instance of borrowing at the attendant costs brings the country closer to the ultimate end, namely an economic and political surrender to an IMF programme.
A new version of the ruling AKP party, working under an IMF programme is the likeliest potential major change you might see down the road ahead.
As another option, there are stories of blind ignorant neocons once more encouraging Erdogan’s defence minister Hulusi Akar to stage a coup. Some other parts of the Western powers that be love ex-president Abdullah Gul. An IMF programme is also certain with these non-option options.
If everything proceeds in the normal way, the opposition’s single candidate will win the presidential elections and the political system will be shifted back to a parliamentary system.
Opposition parties have agreed on a single candidate but they will not announce their candidate as the Erdogan regime would attack the candidate.
The Kurds are not officially in the opposition coalition but they will vote for the opposition’s candidate as they did in the last local elections held in 2019 when Erdogan lost Istanbul and Ankara.
Currently, in surveys, four possible candidates are polled against Erdogan, who is still considered the governing bloc’s candidate despite some possibility that he will not run (but in this option, the governing bloc has no one to bring to voters). The names are Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas, main opposition CHP chair Kemal Kilicdaroglu and CHP’s partner Iyi Party’s chair Meral Aksener.
Aksener has said she does not want to be the candidate. This can also be seen as a move to stop Kilicdaroglu. Everyone definitely wins against Erdogan but Imamoglu and Yavas finish the job in the first round.
If any candidate does not attract 50% plus one vote in the first round, the second round is held two weeks later. Erdogan might set things alight in those two weeks.
Aksener thinks Imamoglu would be the better candidate as he is good at communication with senior citizens. The majority of young people will definitely vote for the opposition.
11 TURKEY Country Report November 2021 www.intellinews.com