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support and photoshoots may not be enough.
Of late, the market has, interestingly, been going easy on Ankara’s monetary policies despite the unexplainable rate cuts.
Erdogan claimed that Joe Biden stalled on him again about meeting at the G20 in Rome on October 30-31 and that they would instead meet in Glasgow at the “green” comedy conclave (Editor’s note: As we were going to press, Biden and Erdogan swapped Glasgow for an October 31 meeting in Rome, while Erdogan pulled out of a Glasgow appearance amid reports that the British downgraded his COP26 security detail and protocol).
Where Turkey’s concerned, foreign policy has turned into a cat and mouse game. Erdogan chases after meetings with Biden anywhere he thinks he might pin him down.
To Biden, Erdogan is a shabby dictator who should be met for transactions at the backdoor. To Erdogan, who must fear losing relevance on the international stage that is a distraction from the carnage of his own making at home, Biden is a vital photo opportunity.
● Afghanistan: Turkey may be engaged in a hellish conflict scenario at any moment as its personnel (only civilians) at Kabul airport are open targets. It is said that Turkish military personnel are waiting in Pakistan to come to the rescue in case of an emergency.
● September 26: Elections in Germany. 735 seats, 368 needed for majority. Germans are discussing coalitions. An SPD+Greens+FDP government is in prospect. It may spell some trouble for the Erdogan regime but the social democrats will play big brother in any case. Mainstream parties are rarely concerned by the human rights angle.
● Erdogan pushed his luck again. Following the recent rate cuts, the market now demands end-2021 inflation above 20%.
Following the latest lira depreciation, Turkey’s official CPI index data does not suggest a declining trend in the foreseeable future.
● Oct 28: The central bank hiked its expectation for end-2021 official inflation to 18.4% from the previous figure of 14.1%, given in the July inflation assessment.
The upper limit on the official inflation forecast was also moved up, taking the expectation to 19.5% from 16%, closer to the market’s
8 TURKEY Country Report November 2021 www.intellinews.com