Page 27 - BNE_magazine_02_2020

bne February 2020 Cover story I 27
Constitutional changes
Another part of the narrative is that Putin is constantly on the cusp of changing the constitution to nix the two-term rule and make himself president for life.
In fact Putin has marked himself out as
a legalist, who has stuck to the word of the constitution and constantly lambasts the west for their double standards in ignoring international law. Sometimes this fixation on constitutional change reaches ridiculous extremes. On the
eve of the presidential vote in 2008 when Putin stepped down, a flash report from the newswires said: “Putin on his way to [Russian TV centre]. Possible constitutional change could be announced.” All he did was go on telly to cajole Russians to go out and vote.
Changing the constitution to nix the two-term rule is becoming more and more difficult. By stepping down in 2008 and keeping to the terms of the constitution Putin only made it stronger. If he were to try to change it now the upshot would probably be large scale public demonstrations. The polls say that the Russian people like and admire Putin, but they also show they are ready for a change and want a new president after Putin’s term is up.
And putting the proposed constitution changes to a referendum – the first
in 23 years – will only strengthen the constitution’s authority again. Indeed, because of the mood in the country he has to put the changes to a referendum. If he simply put it to the Duma and used his power there to railroad the changes through that too could spark unrest. A recent poll found that Russians feel increasingly disconnected from government. These changes and
a referendum is an opportunity for
the Kremlin to reconnect with the
the increasingly demanding population. And it is almost certain that the population will support the changes as they want to see an end to the politics of stagnation and it is a simple matter to sell these changes as a “fresh start”.
If the changes have a popular mandate then it makes it even more difficult for
any subsequent leader to change the constitution back without sparking popular unrest. A referendum on Putin’s changes should lock the new system he is creating in place.
What is his motivation?
The reshuffle is not about creating
a mechanism for Putin to stay in power, although it does include a role for him to stay on in a caretaker capacity.
The changes are designed to allow him to step back from power, but at the same time to protect his legacy and ensure the system doesn't implode.
The irony here is he has built a system where all the power accrued to the president but now has to undo this
by building solid institutions that will outlast him.
great again and at the same time he is tired of the job. Despite the total control Putin has over the system in recent years he has increasing removed himself from the day to day running of the country, increasingly leaving the management of the economy to the liberal camp, headed by former finance minister and Audit Chamber head Alexei Kudrin, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, Minister of Economy Maxim Oreshkin and CBR governor Elvira Nabiullina.
Putin only gets involved in the mega- state-funded projects such as the Kerch bridge to the Crimea, the Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China as well
as leading the foreign policy drive in Ukraine, Syria and now Libya.
“He really is tired and he really does want to leave. He is not someone who
“Changing the constitution to nix the two-term rule is becoming more and more difficult. By stepping down in 2008 Putin only made the onstitution stronger”
Putin himself made those institutions weak as a central plank of his control system. The very weakness of Medvedev as prime minister gave the Kremlin full control over the running of government.
Putin is now trying to turn that system on its head, but has built into this system a place in the State Council (or similar leverage point) where he can oversee the change as a caretaker to make sure this transition doesn't go wrong.
This is a huge task and will take time, which is one of the reasons that he launched the whole programme in 2020 as it gives him four years to manage the process. If he truly wanted to remain
in charge, as president of in some other role, then it would have made more sense to wait until 2024 to spring whatever scheme on the people as
a fait accompli.
Putin is not a megalomaniac. His overriding motivation is to make Russia
enjoys power for power’s sake, but at this point rules because he thinks things would collapse without him, or because he, his friends or his family would not be safe,” tweeted Anna Arutunyan, senior Russian analyst with the Crisis Group.
The changes to the constitution won’t make Russia more democratic as the power remains with the elite. That is part of the problem. Even after 20 years Putin clearly still doesn't think Russia is ready for those political reforms, even if moving power back into the Duma is a step in the democratic direction.
He also doesn't trust his colleagues, which is why he has made a cubbyhole of power that can reach down onto the ground in every region of the country from which he can oversee the process.
“Putin prizes order, efficiency, and institutional rule. His patronage
of Medvedev’s anti-corruption and modernisation campaign during the
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