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Trump pulled out of the JCPOA arguing that in return for sanctions relief it did not put tight enough curbs on Iran to prevent it moving towards the making of a nuclear weapon and did nothing
to address the Iranian ballistic missile development programme and arming of militias and “terrorists” in conflict zones of the Middle East.
The European major power signatories defended the deal and told Iran that they would help defend it from the crushing sanctions Trump planned to use to strangle the Iranian economy to force Tehran to accept a tougher accord.
‘Next to nothing’
But in Iran’s eyes, the Europeans have done next to nothing to protect its economy from Trump. Thus, in a last ditch effort to press Europe to offer some meaningful assistance, Iran has
in recent months gradually degraded its compliance with the JCPOA, culminating in its decision – days after the US drone strike assassination of Iran’s de facto military chief and second most important official, Major General Qasem Soleimani – to drop compliance with all nuclear deal restrictions on its enrichment of uranium.
Since that move, some European officials have briefed media that
Iran could be less than a year away
from developing the ability to build
a nuclear bomb. Purportedly with such considerations in mind, and more in sorrow than anger, the European JCPOA signatories decided to activate the dispute resolution mechanism.
But some reports indicate other considerations also lay behind the move, described by Iran as “a strategic mistake”. On January 15, the Wash- ington Post cited unnamed European officials as saying the Trump admin- istration threatened to impose a 25% tariff on European automobile imports if Britain, France and Germany did not formally accuse Iran of breaking the nuclear deal.
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Washington now anticipated that the UN sanctions on Iran would “snap
back into place” as a result of the European move. The European countries have said that is not their goal.
Russians urge common security mechanism
Russia has said it saw no grounds to trigger the dispute mechanism. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said
on January 15 that Moscow has been urging Gulf countries to consider
a common security mechanism for their region. He added it was time the world got rid of unilateral measures such
as sanctions.
Reuters reported that French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told lawmakers on January 15 that the only way to resolve the crisis between the US and Iran was for Tehran to accept
a broad negotiation and Washington to progressively reduce sanctions. He added that efforts by France and its European partners since September 2017 to open a new negotiation
that would include Iran’s nuclear activities after 2025, its ballistic missile programme and its regional activities in return for a reduction of US sanctions was the only way forward.
“This platform is still there and is possible,” Le Drian said. “Today, it is the only solution to get out of the crisis.”
Speaking in Delhi on January 15, Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, was more upbeat than Rouhani as to the future of the nuclear deal. He argued that the dispute resolution mechanism was intended
to resolve issues such as those raised and that the agreement was “not dead”.
The Guardian, meanwhile, cited Iranian state media as announcing that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was due to deliver the sermon at Friday prayers. He has not spoken at the prayers for eight years and is thought to only do so during critical periods. The last time he did so was in 2012 when he discussed the Arab Spring.
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