Page 56 - BNE_magazine_02_2020

56 I New Europe in Numbers bne February 2020
Ukraine inflation y/y vs m/m
Ukraine consumer inflation ends 2019 at 4.1%
Czech industrial production vs PMI manufacturing index
Ukraine’s central bank didn’t just control inflation in 2019, it crushed it. Ukraine’s consumer prices declined slowed to 4.1% year-on-year
from 9.8% y/y in 2018 and allowed the regulator to slash interest
rates by 3.5% in the space of two months. More very large rate cuts are expected in 2020 as real interest rates are still over 9% – one of the highest in the world.
ING: Czech industrial production fell by more than expected in November as economy cools
Industrial production in Czechia fell by 5.7% year-on-year in November 2019 as the five year long boom comes to an end. Working day adjusted, the fall reached 3.2%, more than the market expected. This disappointing figure pushed Jan-Nov average growth into negative territory, after 3% growth in 2018.
Czech industrial production fell by 1.1% month-on-month in November. The year-on-year fall grew to 5.7% y/y. Adjusted for the effect of fewer working days, the year-on-year decrease comes to 3.2% y/y, still higher than the market expected. Average growth for domestic industry reached -0.3% between January and November last year and it thus fell into mild recession.
Belarus government forecast of 2.8% y/y GDP growth in 2020 met with scepticism by foreign, local economists
The Belarusian government’s forecast that GDP will increase by 2.8% y/y over 2020 was met with scepticism by international financial institutions and independent economists. The Belarusian economy grew by 1.1%
y/y in January-November following the same growth in January- October, according to national statistics agency Belstat. In August, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted that the nation's economic growth in will be at 0.3% y/y in 2020.
Nobody surprised as Turkey’s central bank bows to Erdogan with another rate cut
Analysts saw the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) bowing to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on January 16 by cutting its benchmark one-week repo interest rate by another 75bp to 11.25%.
Erdogan is under political pressure as a growing number of rivals put their heads above the parapet with voters disillusioned by the economic misery Turkey experienced following the 2018 currency crash. The president, it appears, is intent on credit-fuelling a fast rebound of the economy even at the risk of building up longer-term imbalances that could lead to another boom-to-bust.
Belarus GDP (y/y)
Turkish Central Bank's Policy Rates
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