Page 7 - BNE_magazine_02_2020

bne February 2020 The Month That Was I 7
Economics
Eastern Europe
By 2060, the proportion of people over 65 in Russia will double to 47%. Just raising the retirement age will not allow the government to cover their pensions costs. In 2020, people over 65 will account for a quarter of the population of Russia, and by 2060 almost half (47%), according to Credit Suisse.
Russia’s gross international reserves (GIR) topped $557.5bn on January 10, according to the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), surpassing the previous all-time high recorded in 2008. Russia’s reserves have been rising steadily since the crisis of 2014.
Net capital outflow from Russia in 2019 declined 2.4-fold year-on-year to $26.7bn, according to the data of the Central Bank of Russia. In 2019 Russia continued to improve its external position, with its net public debt
falling to zero for the first time since the introduction of sanctions and the collapse of oil prices.
Ukraine’s retail sales grew by a healthy 10.5% y/y in real terms in 2019, accelerating from from 5.8% y/y in 2018, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on January 21. Retail sales are being driven up by rising incomes, which were also up 10% in 2019.
Central Europe
Estonia's net migration has been positive for five years in a row, but the majority of immigrants are non-Estonian citizens, and that has caused “long-term concerns,” according to Minister for Population Affairs Riina Solman. The Statistics Estonia data recorded 12,240 people arriving in Estonia, and 7,210 leaving the country, in 2019.
Lithuania’s current account posted
a surplus of €222.92mn in November, the Bank of Lithuania reported on
January 13. The surplus thus diminished 53.8% m/m versus October. In year- on-year terms, however, the surplus expanded 26.9%.
Estonian industrial production fell 7.2% y/y in November, working-day adjusted data from Statistics Estonia showed on January 3. November marked the sixth consecutive month of falling industrial output in the Baltic state, but Estonian GDP growth has fared largely above expectations.
The share of foreigners on the Czech labour market increased to 12.4% in 2018 and to more than 13% in 1H19, according to data published by the Czech Statistics Office (CSO) on January 16. The most foreign employees come from Ukraine, Slovakia and Vietnam, followed by the significant number
Southeast Europe
Slovenia’s current account surplus rose to €3.1bn in the first eleven months of 2019, up by €500mn from a year earlier, the Bank of Slovenia said on January 13. The surplus in trade of goods increased by €202mn while the surplus in trade of services was higher by €336mn, central bank announced.
Bulgaria reported a current account surplus of €5.88bn in the first eleven months of 2019, up by 96.7% y/y, preliminary central bank data showed. In the autumn edition of its World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund projected that the current account surplus of 4.6% of GDP in 2018 would
be followed by surpluses of 3.2% of GDP in 2019 and 2.5% of GDP in 2020.
Net foreign direct investment (FDI)
in Bulgaria was €989.2mn in the
first eleven months of 2019, versus €521.6mn in January-November 2018, preliminary central bank data showed on January 17. The net investment figure is equal to 1.6% of projected 2019 GDP.
Serbia’s public debt has decreased to 48.2% of GDP, Prime Minister Ana Brnabic said. Serbia has set as a goal to cut the share of its public debt to 45% of GDP by 2024.
Eurasia
Kazakhstan’s gold and foreign currency reserves registered at $29bn at the end of 2019, central bank chairman Yerbolat Dossayev said. The reserves slightly declined from $30.6bn recorded at end-2018.
Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev announced that foreign direct investment (FDI) registered in Uzbekistan more than tripled in annual terms in 2019, reaching $4.2bn due to economic reforms. Uzbekistan’s economy expanded by 5.5% y/y in 2019, beating the 5.1% growth rate recorded in 2018.
of Russians, Polish, Bulgarians and Romanians.
Consumer prices in the Czech Republic rose by 2.8% year on
year on average in 2019, the
highest average annual inflation rate since 2012, primarily due to price increases in housing and food and non-alcoholic beverages, according to the Czech Statistics Office. Inflation ended above the market consensus and the central bank estimate.
At the end of last year, the number of unemployed job applicants in the Czech Republic reached 215,532 – the lowest figure since December 1996. Czech unemployment rose from 2.6% year-on-year in November to 2.9% in December 2019.
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