Page 17 - bne IntelliNews Ukraine Country Report May 2017
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3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro indicators 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F
Business cycle indicators
Real GDP, chg yoy 2.3% -14.8% 4.1% 5.2% 0.2% 0.2% -6.8% -9.9% 1.5% 2.8%
Household consumption, chg 11.8% -14.9% 7.1% 15.7% 11.7% 7.7% -9.6% -20.2% 4.5% 4.0% yoy
Investments in fixed capital, 1.6% -50.5% 3.9% 7.1% 0.9% -6.7% -23.0% -9.3% 6.0% 12.0% chg yoy
Industrial output, chg yoy -5.2% -21.9% 11.2% 8.0% -0.7% -4.3% -10.1% -13.0% 2.0% 4.5%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln 948 913 1,079 1,300 1,405 1,465 1,567 1,979 2,351 2,755
Nominal GDP, USD bln 180 117 136 163 176 183 132 91 90 98
GDP per capita, USD 3,891 2,550 2,972 3,580 3,865 4,030 2,904 1,996 1,991 2314
CPI (eop) 22.3% 12.3% 9.1% 4.6% -0.2% 0.5% 24.9% 43.3% 10.1% 10.1%
CPI average 25.2% 15.9% 9.4% 8.0% 0.6% -0.3% 12.1% 48.7% 13.9% 12.1%
Unemployment (ILO 6.9% 9.6% 8.9% 8.7% 8.2% 7.8% 9.7% 9.1% 8.6% 7.9% methodology, avg)
Source: SP Advisors
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Ukraine’s GDP at 2.5% in 2017 in the multinational lender's latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).
Growth was a strong 4.8% in the fourth quarter of 2016, but has slowed considerable since then; there was no growth at all in the first quarter of this year according to preliminary estimates, but growth is expected to pick up in the first quarter.
Ukraine’s real GDP totalled minus 9.9% in 2015, while in 2016 it is estimated at 1.5%, and is projected at 2.5% in 2017, the report said.
However, the economic blockade imposed on the Donbas regions could shave at least a point off growth as the highly industrialised region accounts for nearly a quarter of the country’s economy. In this case Ukraine is looking at 1.5% growth this year.
Inflation in Ukraine is expected at 11% in 2017 , while the current account balance will remain negative at minus 2.1% of GDP. The unemployment rate in Ukraine in 2017 will be reduced from the current 9% to 8.7%, the IMF forecasts.
17 RUSSIA Country Report April 2017 www.intellinews.com
