Page 34 - bne IntelliNews Ukraine Country Report May 2017

6.0 Public Sector 6.1 Budget
Ukraine's general budget revenue slowed to 8.9% y/y growth in March
from 30.4% y/y in the prior month, the State Treasury reported on April 26. For 3M17, state collections increased 34.9% y/y.
The main drivers were rent on mineral extraction (55.5% y/y), personal income tax (32.9% y/y), excise duties (23.9% y/y), and VAT (+23.0% y/y). Enterprise profit tax collections plunged 65.7% y/y in March.
Slowing budget revenue resulted into a wider general budget deficit of UAH14.0bn in March (UAH11.1bn deficit for the central budget and UAH2.9bn deficit for local budgets).
The cumulative fiscal balance for three months still remains positive with a UAH4.0bn surplus for the general budget. The local budget surplus (UAH13.7bn for 1Q17) secured the result while the central budget is in red (UAH9.7bn deficit).
Falling collections from the enterprise profit tax were the main reason for slowing budget revenues owing to a revised schedule of profit tax payments. At the same time, all other core sources of budget revenues are maintaining two-digit growth rates.
Against this backdrop,Concorde Capital remain positive about budget revenues meeting the targeted 15.9% y/y general revenue increase in 2017. The deficit will stay within the 3.0% of GDP limit.
Budget and debt 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F indicators
State budget revenues, 231.7 209.7 240.6 314.6 346 339.2 357 519 616.3 724 UAH bln
% of GDP 24.4% 23.0% 22.3% 24.2% 24.6% 23.2% 22.8% 26.9% 26.2% 26.3%
State budget 244.2 245.2 304.9 338.1 399.4 403.9 435 552 686.4 806 expenditures, UAH bln
% of GDP 25.8% 26.8% 28.3% 26.0% 28.4% 27.6% 27.8% 29.2% 28.9% 29.3%
State budget balance, -12.5 -35.5 -64.3 -23.6 -53.4 -64.7 -78 -33 -70.1 -82 UAH bln
% of GDP -1.3% -3.9% -6.0% -1.8% -3.8% -4.4% -5.0% -1.7% -3.0% -3.0%
Public debt, UAH bln 189 318 432 473 516 584 1,101 1,594 1,930 2175
%GDP 20.0% 34.8% 40.1% 36.4% 36.7% 39.9% 70.3% 82.7% 82.1% 79.0%
Source: SP Advisors
34 RUSSIA Country Report April 2017 www.intellinews.com