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4.5.2 Income dynamics
The biggest surprise in September’s statistics was the jump in real incomes , which have been declining for almost six years straight. Real income and real disposable income grew +3.3% y/y in September and +3.0% y/y, respectively, after the 0.5% and -0.2% in 2Q19.
Several analysts said they were suspicious of the sudden jump in incomes, which is politically convenient but don't tally with the retail turnover numbers which fell, although the amount of consumer credits punters have been taking out also fell in September
The September report omitted data on wage growth, supplying the revised August data, which was updated to +2.4% y/y, from +3.0% y/y in real terms, and to +6.8% y/y from +7.4% y/y in current RUB.
“We expect real wages in September to be up +3.3% y/y, which seems consistent with the data on real income,” says Alexander Isakov, chief economist at VTB Capital said in a note.
51 RUSSIA Country Report November 2019 www.intellinews.o
