Page 69 - RusRPTNov19

15-20% of the surplus in domestic infrastructure projects, according to Silaunov, expecting at least 3-4.5x private investment multiple on each ruble spent.
The Finance Ministry has released its OFZ borrowing plan for 4Q19. It targets RUB420bn of issuance, versus the planned RUB300bn in 3Q19. Just RUB261n was actually placed in 3Q19, with less issuance of mid-dated paper in particular.
The share of mid-dated issuance in 4Q19 is expected to shrink compared to the 3Q19 plan, which reflects demand from local investors for floaters (most of which have maturities less than 5y; RUB75bn total of floaters are expected to be placed in 4Q) and the Finance Ministry's desire to place more long-dated paper.
The Finance Ministry seems to not have formally taken into account higher than expected Eurobond issuance this year, as well as the fact that, based on comments from ministry officials, no Eurobond buyback will end up taking place this year. Both of these things should mean lower OFZ issuance, and theoretically, the ministry could have cut OFZ borrowing penciled in at the beginning of the year by RUB480bn - the size of the announced 4Q borrowing plan and then some.
6.2 Debt
Russia - External debt 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Jun ‘18
Budget: external debt (USD bn)
2,363.52 2,844.56 2,729.43 2,169.01 2,073.22 2,096.24 1,005.41
Budget: external debt (% GDP)
29.02 31.73 29.07 37.89 39.83 32.84 /
source: CEIC, CBR
Russia's gross external debt declined by $8.3bn in 3Q19 to $471.6bn, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reported on October 11. Government debt and CBR debt were almost flat versus 2Q19 at $64.6bn and $10.9bn.
Asreportedbybn eIntelliNews, Russia's balanceofpaymentsremainedstable in 3Q19 , while external position continued to improve, as net public debt fell to zero for the first time since the introduction of sanctions and the collapse of oil prices.
In the reporting quarter the net debt redemption was attributable to the banking sector, which redeemed $6.6bn in 3Q19 (taking the total to $74.1bn as of October 1 2019). Debt in other (non-financial) sectors declined $1.7bn to $322bn.
Nevertheless, overall in 9M19 total external debt gained $16.9bn (up by 3.7% year-to-date), mostly due to government sector debt (up by $20.6bn) that increased on non-residents buying up federal OFZ bonds worth $14.8bn.
But the overall increase in debt in 9M19 was offset by a net reduction in banking sector debt by $10.5bn, Sberbank CIB notes on October 15.
69 RUSSIA Country Report November 2019 www.intellinews.o