Page 11 - GLNG Week 19

GLNG COMMENTARY GLNG
Lockdown pulls Indian emissions down
India’s carbon dioxide emissions are falling for the first time in 40 years, but the drop reflects the state of the country’s economy
PERFORMANCE
WHAT:
India’s CO2 emissions have fallen slightly for the first time in 40 years.
WHY:
The country’s strict lockdown was preceded by a year of stalled economic growth and renewables expansion.
WHAT NEXT:
A more meaningful shift towards renewables and away from coal would be needed in the longer run.
INDIA’S carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the year to March 2020 as the country’s strict COVID-19 lockdown followed a year of stalled economic growth and expansion in the renewables sector.
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air’s (CREA) Lauri Myllyvirta and Sunil Dahiya used official government figures for the produc- tion of oil, gas coal and electricity to estimate that CO2 emissions fell by 30mn tonnes, or 1.4%, in the year to March.
This is the first decline in emissions for four decades, they claimed.
They also calculated that emissions fell by 15% year on year in March and by 30% in April. Crucially, the 15% fall in monthly emissions in March tipped the balance in favour of an annual fall, they found.
Coal’s decline
Coal-fired power generation fell 15% in March and 31% in the first three weeks of April, CREA said, based on daily data from the national grid.
In contrast, renewable generation increased by 6.4% in March, before posting a small fall of 1.4% in the first three weeks of April.
What this means is that coal generators have accounted for most of the fall in generating out- put. This is a key reason for the fall in emissions, alongside reduced industrial activity and lower levels of transportation, CREA’s analysis said.
Data for coal production cited by CREA showed that total coal deliveries by all producers declined by 2% in the year to March, the first fall in 20 years.
Sales by state-owned Coal India Ltd (CIL), the country’s largest miner, slid by 4.3%, while coal imports rose by 3.2%.
For March alone, coal sales reduced by 10%, while coal imports fell 27.5%. This meant that total coal deliveries to end-users decreased by 15%, reflecting the 15% decline in coal-fired power generation in the same month.
Oil showed an 18% drop in consumption in March, while steel production, the principal index of industrial activity, fell by 22.7% in March
and by 2.2% in the year up to March.
The figures reflect earlier power consump- tion data from The Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC), which used grid data to show that Indian daily consumption was 24.9% less on March 27 than the December daily average as a result of the government’s March 22
lockdown.
This compared with smaller falls of 9.47% for
the EU, 6.9% for the US and 14.87% for China. The EPIC said that the stringent restrictions on commerce and personal movement resulting from India’s severe and sudden lockdown had
contributed to the fall in the demand.
Emissions record
While the cut in emissions is welcome, it is almost entirely reflects the state of the Indian economy.
The World Bank said India’s economy was now expected to grow 1.5-2.8% in 2020-21 fiscal year, which started on April 1. This will be the slowest growth rate recorded since 1991.
The country’s economy was forecast to expand by 5% in the year to the end of March. With the lockdown coming during that month, the economy could actually contract in the short term.
Meanwhile, global coal-fired electricity gen- eration contracted by 3% in 2019, leading to a 2% fall in CO2 power sector emissions, accord- ing to a recent report from UK clean energy
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