Page 19 - bne_newspaper_July_19_2019

Opinion
July 19, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 19
COMMENT:
Ukraine poised for a new strong start after July’s elections
Tim Ash of BlueBay Asset Management
Ukraine heads to the polls again for parliamentary elections on July 21, and expectations are building of another pro-reform vote to follow Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s landslide victory in the run off of the presidential election in April.
While little was known of Zelenskiy’s policy orientation back in the run up to the presidential election, his initial steps as president have
been firmly towards reform – backing Ukraine’s continued Western orientation, including pushing on with EU integration and closer ties with NATO.
Initial hires into his team were admittedly mixed with clear concerns and question over the appoint- ment of Andrey Bohdan as head of the presidential administration, given his past ties to the controver- sial oligarch Igor Kolomoisky. But then encourag- ing signs with proven reformers, including Alex Da- nylyuk and Aivaras Abromavicius given prominent positions as head of the national security council and defence production/procurement agency.
On key reform issues, Zelenskiy has thus far come out on the right, reform side – including
on the issue of asset/wealth declarations, which had looked to stall the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, and therein continued engagement with the IMF (talk of a new revamped programme after elections) but also the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) independence (seemingly rowing back from a hint during the campaign
to change the central bank governor), and suggesting even that he will side with the state
as opposed to former owners in the on-going tryst over the now disputed nationalisation of Privatbank – and rejecting former Kolomoisky’s
Ukraine's political and economic ducks are lining up to give the country a fresh start after the general election pass
suggestion that Ukraine defaults on its debts and kicks the IMF out.
So far Zelenskiy’s performance seems to still
be appreciated by the voters, with opinion polls showing high personal popularity ratings – around two thirds still indicating favourable perceptions of the new president.
And the same polls suggesting that Zelenskiy’s party, Servant of the People (SoP), will top
the polls in parliamentary elections. Polls are generally showing SoP with a 45-48% share of the vote, and then 4-5 parties expected to pass the 5% threshold to secure parliamentary representation.
The pro-Russian “Opposition Platform for Life” (OPfL) is polling second around 11-14%, then for- mer president Petro Poroshenko’s European Soli- darity around 7-10%, Yulia Tymoshenko’s Fatherland on 6-7%, and then pop star Svyatoslav Vakarchuk’s “Voice” on 4-7%, with Strength and Honour of the centrist former national security chief Ihor Smeshko also polling on/around the 5% mark.
From the above it still seems that around three quarters or more of the population are still voting for parties with a pro-European orientation – nota- ble here that despite all the disappointment on the economy/reform front since the Euromaidan, support for EU accession has been rock solid around the two thirds mark, and support for NATO membership has increased from single digits, to now a majority.
It is notable that both SoP and Voice have adopted a strategy of only building their lists with candidates who have never served in the Rada