Page 23 - UKRRptAug20

3.0​ ​Macro Economy
Business cycle indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.3%
-14.8%
4.1%
5.2%
0.2%
0.0%
-6.6%
-9.8%
2.3%
2.5%
3.3%
2.70%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.8%
-14.9%
7.1%
15.7%
8.4%
6.9%
-8.3%
-20.7%
1.8%
7.8%
8.9%
4.90%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.6%
-50.5%
3.9%
7.1%
5.0%
-6.7%
-24.0%
-9.2%
20.1%
18.2%
14.3%
7.00%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.2%
-21.9%
11.2%
8.0%
-0.7%
-4.3%
-10.1%
-13.0%
2.8%
0.4%
1.1%
2.50%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,383
2,983
3,559
4,021
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
112
131
146
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
3,117
2,134
2,193
2,638
3,077
3,336
CPI (eop)
22.3%
12.3%
9.1%
4.6%
-0.2%
0.5%
24.9%
43.3%
12.4%
13.7%
9.8%
7.10%
CPI average
25.2%
15.9%
9.4%
8.0%
0.6%
-0.3%
12.1%
48.7%
13.9%
14.4%
10.90 %
8.20%
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.9%
9.6%
8.9%
8.7%
8.2%
7.8%
9.7%
9.5%
9.7%
9.9%
9.1%
8.00%
Source: SP Advisors
3.1 ​Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine’s GDP dropped 5.9% y/y in 5M20, deepening from 5.0% y/y decline in 4M20​, according to an estimate published on July 9 in the economy report of the Ministry of Economic Development. The estimate is based on the General Production Index (GPI), which is based on the manufacturing results during the period.
In 5M20, GPI dropped 7.3% y/y, deepening from a 6.7% y/y decline in 4M20, the ministry estimated. On a positive note, the ministry also noted the declines in most economic activity slowed down in May amid the eased quarantine restrictions. At the same time, the spread of the coronavirus around the world resulted in reduced global economic activity, and a recess in the investment cycle, which in turn had a negative effect on Ukraine’s economy.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concord Capital said: “We estimate that Ukraine’s economy will have declined around 10% y/y in 2Q20 (vs. a 1.3% y/y drop in 1Q20). We expect the economic downfall to slow down in 1H20, but the economy will remain highly affected by the adverse situation at the global markets and the unfavourable investment environment within the country.”
The Economy Ministry estimates that Ukraine’s GDP contracted by 5.9% from January to May​, the height of the Covid lockdown period. With the economy starting to recover, estimates of the year end GDP performance range from -4 to -8%. In June, the National Bank of Ukraine’s index of business activity expectations hit 45.5 points, up from 29.9 points in April. Below 50 indicates a rather pessimism.
23​ UKRAINE Country Report​ August 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com