Page 101 - RusRPTDec19

9.1.11 ​Metallurgy & mining sector news
9.1.12​ Transport sector news
Metal Expert reduced its estimates of hot rolled coil steel (HRC) prices for Russian flat producers in October and November​. The average price for October was cut by around 10% to $496/tonne, while the average price for the first three weeks of November was cut 3% to $505/tonne. The average spot price for 3mm HRC is now estimated at $502/tonne EXW (this differs from the November average due to FX fluctuations, as Metal Expert's prices are quoted in rubles), implying a $150/tonne premium over the export netback, assuming an FOB price of $385/tonne.
In November, the Russian railway industry again suffered a decline in volumes.​ Total railway transported freight dropped 2% y/y to 106mnt; turnover decreased even more sharply, 3% y/y to 213bnt-km. Coal volumes were 1% up y/y to 32mnt, and oil declined 3% y/y to 19mnt, mainly due to the increase in pipe capacity. Metallurgical cargos also contracted 3% y/y, due to the unfavourable market conditions. Against the backdrop of a weakening railway market, gondola lease rates subsided 6% m/m to RUB1,500/day, while oil tank lease rates stabilised and were flat y/y. Given the 11mo19 numbers, it might be difficult to achieve the target of a 0.5% y/y decline of total volumes for FY19, as it would require a 3% y/y increase in December.
Coal. ​In November, coal volumes rose 1% y/y to 32mnt. Coal transportation stabilised, as it was supported by RZD’s attempts to stimulate export and flat m/m coal prices.
Oil & oil products. ​Oil volumes fell 3% y/y to 19mnt, as the ESPO pipeline started operating at full capacity and took volumes from the Komsomol refinery, which was connected to ESPO in July.
101​ RUSSIA Country Report​ December 2019 ​ ​www.intellinews.com