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7.1 FX issues
The Ministry of Economic Development is planning to raise the proportion of foreign transactions denominated in rubles to 30% by 2024, from just over 20% as of 2018. At present, just 14% of Russia’s exports are denominated in rubles, while Russia pays for 30% of its imports in its own currency, primarily imports from CIS states. Over three-quarters of trade within the EAEU is conducted in rubles and Russia is aiming to raise this to 90% by 2024.
Most analysts view the economy ministry’s target as unrealistic. However, there is a general tendency to underestimate the efficiency losses that the Russian government is willing to impose in pursuit of political imperatives. Russia’s de-dollarization campaign has proven to be more substantive than many had expected, with the Bank of Russia halving its holdings of dollar assets last year. The share of foreign currency credit in total lending to businesses has fallen by 15 percentage points to 25% over the past four years. In the second quarter over half of Russia’s exports to China were denominated in euros, up from just 12% last year.
The latest round of Russian capital repatriation effort brought back assets worth €35mn from over 19,000 declarations submitted by businessmen so far in 2019, Vedomosti and Interfax reported on November 11 citing the Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. As reported by bne IntelliNews, in May the President Vladimir Putin signed a package of laws and decrees that prolong the ongoing capital amnesty and repatriation drive from June 1 2019 to February 29 2020. The latest round of capital repatriation efforts is Amnesty 3.0, and is especially designed to boost special zones in Russia’s Kaliningrad Region and Primorsky Region, or so called Special Administrative Regions
62 RUSSIA Country Report December 2019 www.intellinews.com